Market Matters: December 31, 2024
Global equities advanced in Q4 as performance diverged among regions.
Authored by: Stuart Brown
2025 Outlook: Public Equities
We expect developed markets value and small-cap equities to outperform, given our economic views and their steep valuation discounts. Regionally, we believe US equity performance will not match the level set in 2024, allowing European, Japanese, and emerging markets equities to perform more in line with broader developed markets. Within emerging markets, strong Indian equity gains should moderate, while we doubt Chinese equities will collapse. At the same time, we expect long/short equity strategies will perform better than typical.
Market Matters: November 30, 2024
Global equities advanced as performance diverged among regions. US stocks surged to new all-time highs, whereas developed markets (DM) ex US peers lagged, and emerging markets (EM) shares declined.
Market Matters: October 31, 2024
Global equities and fixed income declined in October as rising bond yields weighed on performance across a broad swath of asset classes.
Do Emerging Markets Equities Deserve a Place in Public Equity Portfolios?
Yes. Emerging markets equities provide a fitting reminder that relative performance among asset classes varies over time, suggesting that investors maintain well-diversified portfolios to weather shifts in performance cycles.
Market Matters: July 31, 2024
Global equities advanced in July, with performance characterized by a rotation away from large-cap growth stocks in favor of small caps and value.
Market Matters: June 30, 2024
Global equities advanced, with performance led by tech-heavy markets, including the United States and emerging Asia.
Decades of Data: United States 1900–2023
The 2023 US edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.
Are Emerging Markets Equities Finally Set to Outperform, Given Expectations for Federal Reserve Rate Cuts This Year?
No. Although emerging markets stocks typically outperform after the onset of Federal Reserve easing, we suspect this episode will be different.
2024 Outlook: Public Equities
We expect global equity performance will be below its long-term median level, but we believe investors should hold equity allocations in line with policy targets. Within equities, we see opportunities in developed value, developed small caps, and China. We doubt European and emerging markets ex China equities will outperform, and we believe the share of active strategies that outperform will increase.