Is China’s Economy Stalling?
No. Economic growth in China is likely to reach 5% this year, which is in line with government targets and consensus forecasts.
Research Publications Archive
Decades of Data: Emerging Markets 1987–2022
The 2022 Emerging Markets edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.
US Debt Ceiling Deal to Weigh Modestly on Already Weak Economic Growth Outlook
US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finalized an agreement in principle to suspend the US debt ceiling through January 1, 2025. The agreement removes the possibility of an unprecedented default, provided it is signed into law, however it still modestly reduces expected government spending and will likely result in tighter near-term liquidity conditions. Taken together, the compromise slightly increases the risk of recession in the United States, which we already viewed as likely.
Streamlined Private Investing: Uncovering Growth in Secondaries
Over the years, as institutional investors have implemented newer and more dynamic private markets strategies in their portfolios in an effort to boost investment returns, they have also faced a timing conundrum. Secondaries have the potential to help address this challenge. We review their potential advantages and show how they can be broadly used as an effective portfolio management tool for investors of all types and sizes.
Seven Things Investors Should Know About the Private Equity Secondary Market
The private equity secondary market can offer investors efficiency and access that is unavailable elsewhere in the private investment universe. We believe partnering with a knowledgeable and experienced investment team is an important part of finding success within this dynamic and evolving asset class, and we answer seven key questions reviewing private equity secondary funds and their benefits.
Should Investors Continue to Overweight US Small Caps Despite Recent Banking Sector Stress and Growing Recession Fears?
Yes, investors should overweight US small-cap stocks, given valuations remain attractive and will provide a cushion if an expected recession unfolds.
US Real Estate Faces Challenges, But Opportunities Exist
Commercial real estate is not immune to economic cyclicality, and we think the sector will be challenged through an economic downturn. However, we think cyclical pressures will likely create opportunities in select sectors and advise investors to selectively invest in these areas to benefit from a rebound during the recovery.
The Business Cycle’s Impact on Asset Performance
Asset performance is highly sensitive to the global business cycle. In this chart book, we highlight the significant shifts in performance distributions across the global business cycle for major asset classes, including equity regions, styles, sectors as well as for fixed income, real asset and currencies. Ultimately, understanding the distributions of asset performance across business cycle stages and considering where the global economy is headed are key inputs in a rigorous investment decision-making framework.
Do Recent Central Bank Meetings Alter Our US Dollar Outlook?
No, we expect that while the US dollar should decline from its current elevated level over the medium term, there are factors that will continue to provide it with support in the short term. If our expectations are met, later this year or early next year should be an opportune time to consider positioning portfolios to benefit from a weaker dollar.
Endowment Spending Amid Record Inflation
Inflation is having a moment—driving up the costs of delivering the nonprofit mission and making it more challenging to maintain endowment purchasing power. This environment highlights the importance of endowment spending policies and their role in balancing near-term spending needs and intergenerational equity.