Weathering the Latest US Government Shutdown
Historically, shutdowns have been short-lived and have had negligible economic and market impact. As such, well-diversified investors need not take specific portfolio action in response.
Research Publications Archive
Should Investors Increase Core Real Estate Allocations Now That the Fed Has Resumed Easing?
No. Despite last week’s rate cut, we do not recommend that most investors increase their core real estate exposure.
Is the Projected Path of Fed Easing Too Aggressive?
Yes. Current market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower its policy rate by roughly 150 basis points by the end of next year are overly optimistic.
India: In the Geopolitical Crosshairs
Once perceived as a US ally, India has recently been thrust into geopolitical crosshairs. Given the increased macro uncertainty, we would not overweight India at this time, particularly as equity valuations remain elevated despite the recent underperformance. Trade policies remain in flux, and there are measures that India can take to counter the near-term impact of tariffs. However, investors should monitor negotiations around India’s Russian oil imports, as these could have wider implications for the economy and market, especially the rupee.
Is the Outperformance of DM ex US Small Caps a Lasting Trend?
Yes. In our view, developed markets ex US small-cap stocks are well positioned to continue outpacing their larger-cap counterparts due to three key factors: reduced sensitivity to global tariff changes, attractive relative valuations, and improving international economic fundamentals.
Heightened Inflation Risks Favor Building More Resilient Portfolios
Description: In today’s environment, building resilient portfolios is essential. Inflation risks are elevated and macroeconomic uncertainty is high. Allocating capital to hedge macro risks may reduce returns, so investors should carefully consider risk tolerance, objectives, and spending needs when assessing their allocations.
Does Trend-Following’s Recent Struggle Signal That the Strategy Is Structurally Broken?
No. Although recent underperformance has led some investors to question whether trend-following is facing deeper structural issues, the strategy is inherently cyclical.
2024 Private Investment Operational DDQ Analysis
This report presents an analysis of manager responses submitted via Cambridge Associates’ operational due diligence questionnaire.
Foundation Annual Investment Pool Returns: Calendar Year 2024
Our annual survey-based report summarizes returns, asset allocation, and other investment-related data for 114 foundations for the calendar year ended December 31, 2024.
Foundation Annual Investment Pool Returns: Investment Portfolio Returns
While calendar year 2024 performance lagged the previous year, it remained strong, with most foundations reporting returns of near 10% or higher. However, it was also the second straight year that diversified portfolio returns fell short of an investment option with heavier public allocations. As a result, the three-year peer median return underperformed a simple blended index weighted 70% global public equity and 30% fixed income. The story was the opposite over the longer term, where private investments continued to be a primary return driver for the best-performing portfolios. The Investment Portfolio Returns section highlights these contrasting performance themes for the short-term versus long-term periods.