Research Publications Archive

What Should Investors Make of Recent Headlines from China and Greece?

The situations in China and Greece, not to mention Puerto Rico’s debt woes, serve as a poignant reminder not to be complacent. Investors should take care that portfolios are well constructed, diversified, and consistent with their ability to absorb downside risks while meeting long-term return objectives. With risks rising in some areas, and few bargains…

Review of Market Performance: Fiscal Year 2015

Both the strengthening US dollar and decline in oil prices impacted markets in fiscal year 2015. The year also witnessed a number of reversals, namely strong performance in the second half of the year relative to the first. This brief chart book looks at returns and other market metrics for fiscal year 2015.

Revisiting Active US Equity Management: A Cyclical Story

We are not unconditional advocates for or against active management; investors have different circumstances. However, while there are many logical rationales for favoring index over active investing, the recent performance struggle of the average active manager is not among them.

Constructing Superior Equity Portfolios

Executive Summary A common perception among investors that employ active equity management is that the “donut” structure—an all-active manager structure often composed of four or more high conviction managers—is more aggressive, more expensive, and riskier than the “core-satellite” structure—which blends active and passive management by adding a large passive core component to the donut—because of…

When Should Investors Become More Enthusiastic About US Small-Cap Stocks?

Investors should become more enthusiastic about US small-cap stocks when valuations become more compelling. Small-cap valuations today are unusually rich. Our preferred composite P/E ratio indicates the Russell 2000® trades at 33.7 times normalized earnings, about 60% above fair value and in the top 2% of all historical occurrences. Short-term metrics are little more compelling;…

European Equities: Too Early to Take Profits

We continue to advise an overweight to Eurozone equities versus US equivalents given attractive relative valuations, greater potential for earnings growth, and tailwinds from the improving macro environment Eurozone equities have performed strongly year-to-date but may have more room to run given valuations and weaker medium-term performance. UK equities have similar valuations but are less…

The Government Bond Market “Rout”: Technical or Fundamental?

After lying quiescent for many months, volatility has suddenly returned to government bond markets. Many investors have been surprised by the ferocity of the move and are asking themselves whether this is anything more than a tempest in a teacup or the beginning of something bigger. In our view, a combination of fundamental and technical…