Is the United States Set for a Spike in Inflation?
We doubt it. But, price levels are likely to rise gradually in the months ahead, as the rebound in energy commodities continues to impact measurements.
Research Publications Archive
Decades of Data: 1900–2016
In over 35 different analyses and 100 charts, our annual report on the history of global markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds. This year’s edition includes new sections on recent trends in the macro environment and business cycles, as well as several new exhibits in other sections. The appendix to this report shows year-by-year, cumulative, and average annual compound returns for as much as 117 years of market data for Australia, Japan, the UK, and the US.
The Final Phase of USD Strength
History implies the US dollar has more to rise before this strong dollar cycle is over; however, much depends on the fiscal and trade policies enacted by politicians and the responses from global central banks. This chart book provides currency views and historical analysis of momentum, valuation, and fundamentals for five major currencies: USD, GBP, EUR, CHF, and JPY.
Annual Analysis of Independent School Investment Pool Returns: Fiscal Year 2016
This report reviews portfolio returns, asset allocation, investment manager structures, and net flow data for 26 independent schools. Analysis and exhibits include performance attribution, risk analytics, policy portfolio benchmarking, the impact of private investment programs on portfolio liquidity, the use of external managers by asset class, and net flow rates.
Muni Bonds: Still Valuable in a Changing Environment
While worries about tax reform and pension underfunding dog municipal bonds today, their relative appeal and fair value absolute valuations keep them a solid option for high-bracket taxable investors.
Are “Reflation Trades” Reversing or Just Pausing?
Some of the reflation trades that received a boost from the US election look to be merely taking a breather as investors square positions; however, the fundamental support for others—particularly the outperformance of US small-cap equities—is challenged.
Annual Analysis of College and University Investment Pool Returns: Fiscal Year 2016
This report reviews portfolio returns, asset allocation, investment manager structures, and net flow data for 161 colleges and universities. Analysis and exhibits include asset class returns, performance attribution, risk analytics, policy portfolio benchmarking, the impact of private investment programs on portfolio liquidity, the use of external managers by asset class, and net flow rates.
Is Now the Time to Invest in Real Assets?
In a word, yes, albeit slowly and selectively.
New Zealand Outlook 2017: As Good As It Gets?
For New Zealand and the global economy as a whole, 2017 may be as good as it gets, especially if fiscal stimulus and protectionism cause inflation to rise in 2018, forcing a more aggressive tightening in monetary policy.
Australia Outlook 2017: Reflation to the Rescue
Australia should benefit from a continuation of the reflation trade, but investors should not get too excited given risks to the outlook, particularly protectionism from the Trump administration.