Research Publications Archive

Decades of Data: Emerging Markets 1987–2021

The 2021 Emerging Markets edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.

China Risks: Is Taiwan Next?

Given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, concerns that China might decide to invade Taiwan are rising. But China is not Russia, and Taiwan is not Ukraine. For China to unilaterally break the status quo and risk a failed invasion and inflict economic pain on the population would be extremely destabilizing for a party that puts domestic stability above everything else. And given the current state of the Chinese economy and China’s vulnerability to US tech sanctions and the USD banking system, China is unlikely to invade Taiwan any time soon.

Business Ownership at a Crossroads: Key Questions for Planning What’s Next

Private business owners who hold the majority of their wealth in one company are different from other investors. They face unique challenges when making investment decisions, including the fundamental question of whether to retain a concentrated position in their business. In this paper, we share some key questions business owners can ask themselves to help arrive at answers best suited to their own unique needs.

Decades of Data: Europe ex UK 1900–2021

The 2021 Europe ex UK edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.

2022 New Zealand Outlook: Balancing the Pivot

New Zealand’s COVID-19 containment strategy served the economy well during the early days of the pandemic. However, New Zealand equities and bonds suffered in 2021 as growth slowed to a halt late in the year due to lockdown measures and inflation moved higher due to labour market constraints. Heading into 2022, New Zealand authorities have pivoted the strategy from zero–COVID-19 to minimisation and protection, while still embarking on a monetary policy tightening cycle. Balancing both strategies will be key to supporting New Zealand’s economic growth in 2022.