US

Is the United States in a Recession? Labor Market Focus

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Currently, there is an active debate about whether the United States is in a recession. Two quarters of negative GDP fits one definition of a recession; however, the National Bureau of Economic Research looks at a greater expanse of data before making its assessment. In this note, we examine some of this data, dig into other line items in the national accounts, and look at historical trends in employment around recessions to further our understanding and put today’s labor market into context.

US PE/VC Benchmark Commentary: Calendar Year 2021

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In 2021, the US private equity and venture capital indexes posted their highest calendar year returns since 1999, potentially signaling a market peak and the end of over a decade of steady growth. For the year, the Cambridge Associates LLC US Private Equity Index® returned 41.3% and the Cambridge Associates LLC US Venture Capital Index® gained 54.6%.

VantagePoint: Have US Equities Hit Bottom?

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Given the uncertain economic and profit environment, have markets bottomed yet? In this edition of VantagePoint, we address this question by comparing current market conditions to those of historical bear markets, evaluating economic conditions to better understand near-term recession prospects, and considering how much further the market may have to go based on historical precedents.

Spending Policies and Practices: Fiscal Year 2021

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Annual distributions from the endowment are a source of supplemental operating revenue for most endowed institutions. An institution’s endowment spending policy provides a basis for the calculation of the annual distribution, serving as a bridge that links the long-term investment portfolio and the enterprise. The data and analysis in this report review the various spending rule types used among our endowed clients. Also included are analyses on the endowment’s support of operations and effective spending rate.

Foundation Annual Flash Statistics: Calendar Year 2021

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The Foundation Annual Flash Statistics Report provides a first look at the results of our 2021 Foundation Annual Investment Pool Returns survey. Included in the analysis are a summary of investment pool returns, asset allocation, and returns after spending for 111 foundations. Additionally, the report provides detailed data by institution on asset allocation. Look for our full annual analysis in the upcoming Foundation Annual Investment Pool Returns report.

Small-Cap Stocks Present Large Opportunity

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US small-cap stocks have underperformed large-cap peers in recent years, opening a significant valuation discount that seems hard to justify based on relative earnings strength or balance sheet health. The sector exposure of small-cap stocks may make them better positioned for the current environment of rising interest rates and high commodity prices. While small caps should always be a part of investors’ tool kits, now is an especially opportune time to add exposure, given historically low valuations.