Fiscal year 2021 saw a continuation of the strong rebound in risk assets, which had commenced in second quarter 2020. This was facilitated initially by positive news from COVID-19 vaccine trials, and then ultimately by their gradual rollout, which established a path back toward economic normality. Meanwhile, both fiscal and monetary policy remained at extremely accommodative settings.
In 2020, the Cambridge Associates LLC Developed Markets (ex US) Private Equity and Venture Capital Index® returned 33.1% in USD terms.
In 2020, the US private equity and venture capital (PE/VC) indexes shook off first quarter declines to enjoy one of their best years ever, with returns in each quarter surpassing the previous one; for the year, the Cambridge Associates LLC US Private Equity Index® returned 27.8% and the Cambridge Associates LLC US Venture Capital Index® gained 50.1%. For PE, 2020 was the fourth-best year and for VC, it was the second.
No, not yet, as just over 10% of last year’s performance was realized.
In private investing, it appears that way, but a deeper look suggests there could be a method to the valuation madness.
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic caused steep declines in risk markets in first quarter 2020. Safe-haven assets, such as core sovereign bonds and gold, performed strongly during this period and have held on to much of their gains. Large-scale intervention by both monetary and fiscal authorities eventually put a floor under risk markets, driving rapid recoveries and pushing equity markets to new highs.
Analyzing operating metrics can provide insights into the process by which private equity managers execute their strategy. This update to our annual report includes comparisons of private equity globally (roughly 9,600 companies in total) with public peers, as well as regional comparisons for approximately 5,000 US-based companies, more than 2,400 European companies, and more than 1,600 Asian companies acquired by PE firms from 2000 through 2019.
The Cambridge Associates LLC Developed Markets ex US Private Equity and Venture Capital (PE/VC) Index returned -1.5% in first half 2020 in USD terms after suffering significant losses (-10.8%) from the onset of COVID-19 in first quarter. The Cambridge Associates LLC Emerging Markets Private Equity and Venture Capital Index earned 4.7% due to a strong second quarter recovery of 11.4% and a modest pandemic-driven downturn earlier in the year.
First half 2020 was downright Dickensian (as in a “tale of two quarters”); first quarter returns were down as the COVID-19 pandemic began to close economies, while second quarter performance was strongly positive as public and private investments rebounded.
The 2020 Under the Microscope analysis highlights US PE industry trends leading into the COVID-19 crisis. The analyses indicate that 2019 was in many ways a continuation of the cycle of elevated acquisition and leverage multiples, with PE-backed companies showing sustained revenue and EBITDA growth.