Have Tail Risks to the US Economy Increased?
Yes. The range of possible outcomes for the US economy has widened, with greater chances of both positive and negative tail events.
Investment Planning
Will the Fed Remain Independent?
Yes, we expect economic data to remain the primary driver of Federal Reserve policy decisions.
US Military Operation in Venezuela Strengthens Case for Diversification
The US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro highlights the growing assertiveness of the Trump administration and further strengthens the case for investors to embrace diversification.
2026 Outlook: Finding Value Amid the Hype
Our 2026 outlook provides our perspective on the global economic environment and presents 15 key views across asset classes.
2026 Outlook: Portfolio-Wide Views
In 2026, investors should rebalance portfolios to embrace greater diversification, thoughtfully navigate opportunities in artificial intelligence, and prioritize investments across the electricity transmission value chain. With heightened equity risks and a weakening US dollar, a disciplined, multi-asset approach will help strengthen portfolio resilience and capture emerging growth themes.
A US-China Trade Deal Would Show Desire for Gradual Strategic De-risking, Not Abrupt Decoupling
Global markets rallied on October 26 following news that the United States and China have reached a “preliminary consensus” on several key issues. Although a formal agreement has not yet been announced, both sides are clearly working to de-escalate trade tensions that intensified in early October.
Building Resilient Portfolios: Liquid Diversifiers for Today’s Institutional Challenges
Liquid diversifiers represent a modern approach to portfolio construction, offering the potential for uncorrelated returns, improved liquidity, and enhanced risk management.
Weathering the Latest US Government Shutdown
Historically, shutdowns have been short-lived and have had negligible economic and market impact. As such, well-diversified investors need not take specific portfolio action in response.
Heightened Inflation Risks Favor Building More Resilient Portfolios
Description: In today’s environment, building resilient portfolios is essential. Inflation risks are elevated and macroeconomic uncertainty is high. Allocating capital to hedge macro risks may reduce returns, so investors should carefully consider risk tolerance, objectives, and spending needs when assessing their allocations.
Have Markets Moved Beyond Peak Tariff Uncertainty?
Yes, the period of greatest tariff uncertainty for global equity investors is likely behind us.