Does the Iran War Change Our View That Equity Market Broadening Will Continue?
No. The Iran War does not alter our conviction that the broad equity rally that began in 2025 will continue.
Investment Planning
A New Era of Dispersion in Direct Lending Favors Disciplined Managers
Direct lending has attracted significant institutional capital over the past decade, but that environment is now changing. In a more challenging landscape, we expect performance dispersion to emerge more clearly between managers, reinforcing the importance of manager selection and taking a diversified approach across strategies, geographies, and borrower segments.
Will the Iran War Force the ECB and BOE to Tighten as Much as Markets Expect?
No, we do not think so. While the European Central Bank and Bank of England have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to the Iran-driven energy shock, we believe markets are overpricing the amount of tightening that will ultimately be delivered.
ODD in Focus: Artificial Intelligence Usage Governance and Compliance
AI’s growing role in investment management has made strong AI governance, policies, and security controls a key focus of operational due diligence in assessing whether managers adequately protect proprietary and confidential information.
Does the Iran War Change Our View on the US Dollar?
No, we continue to believe the US dollar faces meaningful downside risks over the next few years and recommend that investors remain underweight the dollar in portfolios.
The Iran War: Impact on Energy, Inflation, and Markets
The war in Iran has triggered a historic disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil & gas prices higher and exposing vulnerable energy-importing regions. This shock is fueling concerns over higher inflation and rising bond yields, creating a volatile environment where commodities lead while global equities and traditional bond diversifiers underperform.
Will the Iran Conflict Trigger a Pandemic-Style Inflation Spike?
No, we do not think this is the likely outcome. While the path forward is highly uncertain, several key factors suggest that a repeat of pandemic-era inflation is unlikely.
Should Credit Investors Be Concerned About Rising AI-Related Debt Issuance?
Yes. Credit investors should be concerned about rising artificial intelligence (AI)-related debt issuance for several reasons.
Have Tail Risks to the US Economy Increased?
Yes. The range of possible outcomes for the US economy has widened, with greater chances of both positive and negative tail events.
Will the Fed Remain Independent?
Yes, we expect economic data to remain the primary driver of Federal Reserve policy decisions.