Today, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds target range by 25 basis points (bps), to 4.75%–5.00%, as expected, and signaled it expects at least another 25 bps of additional rate hikes will be necessary to bring down inflation. This announcement and the recent turmoil in the banking sector increase our confidence that the Fed is nearly done tightening.
No. We continue to think investors should tightly manage risk by keeping equity allocations and bond duration in line with broad policy targets and resist the temptation to time the market.
Following no US bank failures in the last two years, two banks failed in the last three days—Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. As the situation evolved last week, investors, businesses, and regulators became increasingly concerned about SVB and risks to the broader economy. Over the weekend, US officials from the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and FDIC released a joint statement saying that all deposit holders at both banks will be kept whole, even their uninsured deposits, and the Fed established a new Bank Term Funding Program. In addition, the UK Prime Minister and Bank of England helped arrange the sale of SVB’s UK subsidiary to HSBC. Taken together, these actions significantly decrease contagion risks associated with the collapse of these two banks.
Investing can often feel like steering a ship through stormy seas, traversing risks seen and unseen. Adopting a more disciplined approach to investing for social and environmental equity can help investors minimize portfolio risk and maximize impact, even during flagging markets. In this paper, we review the momentum experienced in sustainable and impact investing and the historical relationship between global recessions and inequality. We then explain the rationale for staying the course during turbulent times, and introduce a framework designed to help investors produce better financial and impact outcomes in any market cycle.
Yes. Markets will be less vulnerable to rising rate risk next year, as the aggressive tightening that has weighed on markets for much of 2022 has moderated more recently since inflation has slowed.
We expect most investors should maintain equity allocations in line with policy targets. Consistent with this idea, we believe investors with portfolios that are more diversified across risk exposures will tend to fare better than investors holding more correlated investments.
Yes. The combination of rising interest rates and a deteriorating earnings outlook is likely to generate ample negative headlines about credit in the months ahead.
The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 included substantial relief funds for the most troubled US multiemployer pension plans through its Special Financial Assistance (SFA) program. This paper looks at how multiemployer plans have a unique opportunity to improve their solvency through 2051 and beyond by optimizing how they invest both SFA relief funds and their existing plan assets.
With inflation running at multi-decade highs, monetary policymakers are united in one of the most aggressive tightening campaigns in decades. Most central banks have already significantly increased policy rates this year, and some are unwinding their massive balance sheets, also known as quantitative tightening (QT). In this paper, we review what is known about the current state of central banks’ balance sheets and their operations, discuss some known uncertainties of QT’s impact on financial markets, and consider QT in the context of the current market environment.
Most defined benefit plans–including public, multi-employer, and even frozen corporate plans–can benefit from private investment (PI) strategies. Despite this, many plan sponsors still abruptly cut off PI commitments or do not optimize their usage as the plan matures. This paper explores how plan sponsors should utilize PI strategies within their toolkit and customize their composition over time to reflect a plan’s evolving goals.