Credit/Fixed Income

Market Matters: February 2021

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Risk assets rallied in February as global vaccination efforts progressed and economic momentum strengthened. However, the rally stalled in the latter half of the month amid concerns about a resurgence in inflation. Value stocks trounced growth. Small caps outperformed large caps for the sixth consecutive month. Sovereign bond prices declined amid sharply rising yields, while high-yield bonds advanced and bested investment-grade equivalents. Real assets mostly gained; oil prices reached their highest levels in more than a year, but gold declined at its fastest monthly rate since 2016. Among major currencies, UK sterling advanced, whereas the US dollar and euro were mixed.

VantagePoint: Modern Portfolio Diversification

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Investors are facing a challenging period for earning what they spend and achieving adequate portfolio diversification. With most DM sovereign bond yields near or below zero, expected returns for bonds are at all-time lows and diversification qualities are constrained. In this edition of VantagePoint, we evaluate defense and diversification options to identify a modern approach to diversification in this low-yield era.

Playing Defense in a Low-Rate Environment

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Investors have predominantly relied on developed markets sovereign bonds for defense in balanced portfolios, but low rates have diminished their diversification characteristics. We find that a diversified basket of “defensive” assets has provided comparable diversification characteristics to developed markets sovereign bonds historically. While this basket may not solve all challenges associated with today’s low-rate environment, we view it as better equipped than developed markets sovereign bonds to defend balanced portfolios during future periods of equity market stress.

Review of Market Performance: Calendar Year 2020

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The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic caused steep declines in risk markets in first quarter 2020. Safe-haven assets, such as core sovereign bonds and gold, performed strongly during this period and have held on to much of their gains. Large-scale intervention by both monetary and fiscal authorities eventually put a floor under risk markets, driving rapid recoveries and pushing equity markets to new highs.

China’s Onshore Bond Market: An Update

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Interest in China’s onshore bond market has been rising steadily since 2016 when the market was thrown open to foreign investors. Foreign holdings of onshore bonds now exceed US$400 billion and are set to rise further. We think the market warrants further attention from global investors, given Chinese bonds continue to offer higher yields and lower correlations than those found in other major bond markets, with the potential to bring portfolio diversification benefits.