Although an inverted yield curve is not a sign we welcome, it also is not a clear indicator of an imminent equity market downturn. Instead of underweighting risky assets, we suggest investors take this opportunity to refresh plans to manage through the next bear market.
In over 40 different analyses and 100 charts, our annual report on the history of global markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds. Given the stage of the economic cycle and a shifting paradigm in central bank policy, we incorporate a current market environment section this year. The appendix to this report shows year-by-year, cumulative, and average annual compound returns for as much as 119 years of market data for Australia, Japan, the UK, and the US. Emerging markets equity returns are also included in the appendix—with 30 years of history—in USD and local currency terms.
This chart book presents representative long-only and hedge fund manager performance for fourth quarter 2018. The median US Core Bonds manager posted the highest median return for fourth quarter 2018, returning 1.4%. The median Cash Management manager posted the best returns for the one-year period ending December 31, 2018, with a return of 2.0%. The median US Small-Cap Growth Equity manager posted the lowest median return for fourth quarter 2018 (-20.4%). The median Global ex US Small-Cap manager suffered the worst performance (-19.1%) for the one-year period.
In response to the proliferation of new private credit strategies and managers, Cambridge Associates has developed a set of benchmarks that will help limited partners assess the performance of new and existing fund manager (general partners).
Myriad rising risks weighed on performance in 2018, leaving investors few places to hide among the sea of red.
Demand for collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) has soared in recent years, despite lingering suspicions about asset-backed securities due to their role in the global financial crisis. This paper provides an update on recent trends in the CLO market and discusses what we believe are some of the more attractive implementation options.
Left unaddressed, the significant and increasing problem of pension underfunding could sink some municipal issuers in the next market downturn. Although investors in high tax brackets will likely continue to benefit from holding municipal bonds as a cornerstone in their portfolios, they should diversify across states and issuers that are better prepared to navigate any rough seas ahead.
This chart book presents representative long-only and hedge fund manager performance for third quarter 2018.
When evaluating US credit trends over the last two decades, an institutional loan default that occurs within its year of origination has often been an ominous sign The idea resembles the closely monitored first payment–default metric that consumer lenders track as a bellweather for loan quality A loan default within its year of origination has…
In this report, we briefly highlight five key post-GFC developments and discuss how investors might adapt their portfolios to these changes.