European Credit: An Accident Waiting to Happen?
European credit trades as if defaults are an historical relic to be found only in museums and musty, dust-filled libraries.
European credit trades as if defaults are an historical relic to be found only in museums and musty, dust-filled libraries.
While returns have been strong across European markets, the financials sector remains in the driver’s seat.
Although U.K. equities are approaching their year 2000 highs, history implies the secular bear market is not yet over.
Continued strength in the euro would likely put increasing pressure on European corporate profits, and by extension European equity markets.
U.K. investors seeking equity exposure to global opportunities will likely need to invest more broadly than just in the FTSE All-Share Index.
U.K. equities appear pricey once you look below the index level valuations.
While there is some cause for cautious optimism on earnings, earnings growth is cyclically stretched and more likely to decrease than continue to rise. Consensus expectations for profit margins and earnings expectations set a high bogey.
Normalized P/E ratios that adjust for earnings cyclicality suggest that these markets are quite a bit more expensive than do standard P/E metrics.
Investors continue to pour money into the sector, but high prices and low yields are likely to damp long-term returns.
U.K. charities that must operate under income-only spending policies should actively monitor and manage the potential biases a high dividend yield strategy may introduce.