Review of Market Performance: Calendar Year 2025
Global economic growth hovered near trend in 2025. The dollar weakened sharply, while global equities and commodities posted strong gains. Bond returns improved as rates and credit spreads eased.
Europe
VantagePoint: Electrifying Returns in the AI Era
In this edition of VantagePoint, we examine how the rise of AI is reshaping the global energy landscape and highlight the most compelling opportunities and risks for investors.
Review of Market Performance: Fiscal Year 2025
US tariffs added to market volatility in the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025. Nevertheless, most risk assets ended the year higher, supported by strong earnings ahead of tariff uncertainty and the prospect of continued central bank policy easing to support growth.
VantagePoint: What to Do About the US Dollar?
In this edition of VantagePoint, we examine the historical context of the dollar, outline why we believe the recent decline is likely part of a multi-year bear market, and discuss strategies investors can use to reduce their dollar exposure.
US Policy Changes Highlight Need for Portfolio Diversification
After a prolonged period of US outperformance, many investment portfolios have become heavily concentrated in US equities, but recent policy shifts now challenge US economic and financial hegemony. Investors should carefully evaluate these exposures to determine if greater diversification is warranted.
Will German-led Fiscal Reforms be Transformative for Europe?
Yes, in response to weak growth and a changing defence landscape, taking off the fiscal straitjacket should catalyse a more growth-supportive economic environment within Europe.
Should Investors Underweight Euro Area Equities Given Trade Wars, Elections, and the Weak Growth Outlook?
No. All three factors have weighed on euro area equity and currency markets to some extent in recent months, but we recommend continuing to hold euro area equities at benchmark weights.
Review of Market Performance: Calendar Year 2024
Most risk assets enjoyed strong returns in the calendar year (CY) ended December 31, 2024. US equities led on better-than-expected economic data and AI-related growth.
Private Infrastructure: Secular Themes Offer Compelling Opportunities
This note provides an update on the current opportunity set in infrastructure investments and highlights some of our preferred areas in the private space, including energy transition and digital infrastructure.
VantagePoint: As the Narratives Turn
In this edition of VantagePoint, we find that consumers, corporations, and the banking sector remain in good shape, and while US/global economic growth is likely to slow in the second half of 2024 relative to the first, we expect it will remain positive. Although market concentration risk is elevated, given its focus on highly profitable AI-related tech stocks, we would seek to be measured about diversifying such risks.