This paper discusses recent trends in US commercial real estate fundamentals and looks ahead to what might be in store for the remainder of 2021. Overall, we are reluctant to sound overly bullish about the broad asset class, as the outlook for some sectors is unclear. Still, for investors looking to immediately deploy capital, we highlight two categories of opportunities.
Yes, because rising concentration reflects rising valuations for the largest stocks, which are likely to serve as a headwind to index returns. Further, the growing market share of these companies increases the potential for rising regulatory oversight.
As 2020 comes to a close, we expect some key investment drivers to persist into next year. While our views speak to many different challenges confronting investors, including the poor bond yields on offer, the fate of US-China relations, and where to find growth, they are rooted in the belief that 2021 will be a year of healing for the global economy.
Yes, investors should consider making tactical changes because of valuation differentials exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, but they should size them appropriately given elevated uncertainty.
Economic, market, and healthcare circumstances have been extraordinary over the last six months. However, attractive opportunities exist. We see appeal in tech and tech-enabled businesses but remain cautious on elevated pricing. There’s enough value in relatively cheap segments of public equities to justify taking measured, diversified overweights. We are broadly cautious on credit, but see pockets of opportunity in some segments less supported by central bank activity. Finally, the importance of investing in social equity and diversity has been brought into sharp relief by this crisis.
COVID-19 plunged the global economy into a deep recession triggering concern over a surge in corporate defaults. Recent monetary and fiscal stimulus has allowed a rebound in credit assets ranging from high-yield bonds to highly rated asset-backed securities, but other markets remain dislocated.
On Sunday, the Federal Reserve Bank announced a host of emergency measures intended to improve bond market liquidity and reduce borrowing costs, which come in response to rising signs of dislocation across Treasury, municipal, and corporate bond markets.
The start of a new year and a new decade is an opportune time to reflect on megatrends that will be consequential over the next ten years. In this edition of VantagePoint, we focus on three such trends and their investment implications: disruption, demographics, and decoupling.
Our thoughts on key macro questions, emerging opportunities, and risks in 2020.
European credit investors have enjoyed significant gains in 2019 as the combination of weak economic data and central bank easing has pushed yields lower. Investors will need to be nimble to find attractive risk-adjusted returns in the months ahead.