Private Credit Markets Are Growing in Size and Opportunity
This paper provides an update on recent developments in private credit and highlights several opportunities that investors should explore for the remainder of 2024.
This paper provides an update on recent developments in private credit and highlights several opportunities that investors should explore for the remainder of 2024.
Yes. A record of roughly $925 billion of US commercial real estate (CRE) debt is maturing in 2024 and refinancing needs in future years are also significant.
We expect direct lending and European opportunistic private credit funds will outperform their long-term averages because of high asset yields and the pull back in credit availability among traditional lenders. We like structured credits, particularly high-quality collateralized loan obligation debt, and we expect high-yield bonds will outperform leveraged loans. But we remain neutral on high yield because spreads are compressed.
We expect REIT and public infrastructure performances will improve, given undemanding valuations and our view on interest rates. We believe private infrastructure funds will perform well, and we think nuclear energy will emerge as a small but important opportunity.
Yes, the transition to a low-carbon economy is producing a myriad of productive ways to put capital to work.
The energy transition involves a complex and dynamic set of changes in the way we do just about everything. While significant progress has been made in some quarters, considerable capital will be needed to fund the massive investment required over coming decades. We expect investors with a deliberate and thoughtful plan to invest in the transition across the risk/reward spectrum will be rewarded.
Yes. Despite elevated macro uncertainty, it is an opportune time to allocate to private credit.
The current macroeconomic and market environment creates an attractive opportunity for credit opportunity managers. We believe managers with flexible capital, strong sourcing efforts, and structuring skills will find ample investment opportunities and will deliver strong returns in the coming years.
Yes, investors should overweight US small-cap stocks, given valuations remain attractive and will provide a cushion if an expected recession unfolds.
The current market turmoil has created an attractive environment for direct lenders. The dislocation in the public markets has driven borrowers to private lenders that can demand better pricing and lender-friendly terms. As a floating-rate asset, lenders are benefiting from the sharp increase in rates and all-in yields are in the low double digits.