Does the Iran War Change Our View That Equity Market Broadening Will Continue?
No. The Iran War does not alter our conviction that the broad equity rally that began in 2025 will continue.
Authored by: Wade O'Brien
A New Era of Dispersion in Direct Lending Favors Disciplined Managers
Direct lending has attracted significant institutional capital over the past decade, but that environment is now changing. In a more challenging landscape, we expect performance dispersion to emerge more clearly between managers, reinforcing the importance of manager selection and taking a diversified approach across strategies, geographies, and borrower segments.
Should Credit Investors Be Concerned About Rising AI-Related Debt Issuance?
Yes. Credit investors should be concerned about rising artificial intelligence (AI)-related debt issuance for several reasons.
2026 Outlook: Fixed Income Views
A disciplined, quality-focused approach across fixed income and private credit can help position portfolios for balanced risk-adjusted returns in a challenging environment in 2026.
2026 Outlook: Diversifier Views
In 2026, a disciplined, diversified approach across hedge funds, real assets, and California Carbon Allowances can help investors navigate market uncertainty and capture emerging growth.
Should Investors Increase Core Real Estate Allocations Now That the Fed Has Resumed Easing?
No. Despite last week’s rate cut, we do not recommend that most investors increase their core real estate exposure.
After a Blistering First Half of the Year, Can Non-US Equities Continue to Outperform US Peers?
Yes, we believe a combination of attractive valuations, a shifting macro and policy environment, and stretched US profitability will allow non-US equities to continue outperforming.
Should Investors Add to High-Yielding Credit Allocations, Given the Recent Rise in Spreads?
No. We believe it is too early to add exposure to US high-yield bonds and broadly syndicated loans, as spreads for most assets are merely back to around their historical medians and could move higher from here if economic growth deteriorates.
Will President Trump’s Proposed Policy Initiatives Drive More US Large-Cap Equity Outperformance?
No, we don’t think so. While President Donald Trump made numerous campaign pledges that could be seen as beneficial, US large-cap stocks will need more than policy shifts to outperform US small-cap stocks in 2025.
2025 Outlook: Credit Markets
We expect liquid credit returns to decline due to low credit spreads and anticipated Fed easing. Direct lending returns should moderate but continue to outperform their liquid counterparts. Meanwhile, insurance-linked securities will continue to benefit from strong demand, and increased transaction volumes should support both specialty finance and credit opportunities managers. In emerging markets, currencies should become a tailwind for local bonds.