Outlook 2020: Ten Investing Themes for the Coming Year
Our thoughts on key macro questions, emerging opportunities, and risks in 2020.
Authored by: Sean Duffin
Diversification Challenges
As investors prepare for the next equity market downturn, they should take a closer look at the benefits and limits of diversification.
Frontier Markets: The Next Frontier in Your Portfolio?
Are frontier markets corrupt, politically driven, and dangerously speculative? Or, are they budding blossoms destined to deliver strong returns? This publication aims to help investors to decide whether and how to integrate FM equities into portfolios, assess underappreciated FM risks, and discuss implementation considerations.
Emerging Markets Equity Manager Performance: 2018
More than 63% of active emerging markets equity managers underperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gross of fees in 2018, marking the third consecutive year of underperformance. This chart book is our annual summary of the absolute and relative performance of managers that report to our database. This is a companion piece to the US, global ex US, and global equity manager performance chart books already published.
Global Equity Manager Performance: 2018
In 2018, 52% of active global managers underperformed the MSCI World Index gross of fees, with the median manager underperforming by 20 basis points. This marked a reversal from active managers’ strong outperformance in 2017. This is a companion piece to the US and global ex US equity manager performance chart books already published.
Global ex US Equity Manager Performance: 2018
In 2018, 62.1% of active global ex US managers underperformed the MSCI EAFE Index gross of fees, with the median manager underperforming by 123 basis points. Since 2000, the median manager has now underperformed the index in just three calendar years, and 2018 marks the first year of underperformance since 2004. This is a companion piece to the US manager performance chart book already published.
US Mid- to Large-Cap Equity Manager Performance: 2018
For the fifth straight year, the majority of active mid- to large-cap managers underperformed in 2018, with 61.1% underperforming (gross of fees) in 2018. The median manager underperformed the Russell 1000® Index by 136 basis points for the year. This chart book is our annual summary of the absolute and relative performance of managers that report to our database.
Should Investors Fret About Declining Earnings Estimates?
Geopolitical tensions and growth concerns loom large over the global economy, but we don’t think investors should fixate on the recent slowdown in near-term earnings expectations.
US Buybacks: Don’t Sweat the Slowdown
Slowing buyback activity is a sure sign it’s getting late in the current market cycle, but we expect buybacks to continue fueling the market for now.
Assessing the Track Records of “Predictive” Indicators
How much faith can investors put in the signs given by various “predictive” indicators? In this brief, we look at five indicators that have been in vogue in recent years, and review their track record.