US Tariffs Increase Market Risks
Yesterday (April 2), US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs targeting nearly all US trading partners.
Authored by: Sean Duffin
A More Appealing Environment for Equity Long/Short Strategies
Equity long/short strategies—a prominent hedge fund strategy—have faced challenges since the Global Financial Crisis, but we believe the future looks brighter for these strategies due to several factors that should enhance returns.
2025 Outlook: Cross Asset
We expect global equities to outperform bonds, as near trend economic growth should support continued corporate earnings growth and healthy risk appetite. Stock/bond correlations should be lower than the 2023–24 peak levels, even as protectionist US policy may drive global economic uncertainty higher.
2025 Outlook: Public Equities
We expect developed markets value and small-cap equities to outperform, given our economic views and their steep valuation discounts. Regionally, we believe US equity performance will not match the level set in 2024, allowing European, Japanese, and emerging markets equities to perform more in line with broader developed markets. Within emerging markets, strong Indian equity gains should moderate, while we doubt Chinese equities will collapse. At the same time, we expect long/short equity strategies will perform better than typical.
Market Matters: November 30, 2024
Global equities advanced as performance diverged among regions. US stocks surged to new all-time highs, whereas developed markets (DM) ex US peers lagged, and emerging markets (EM) shares declined.
US Election Anxiety: Keeping Calm Amid Political Uncertainty
Markets have been jittery as the US presidential election approaches. The macro backdrop is shifting, with slowing economic growth and ebbing inflation meaning a cycle of monetary easing beckons. At the same time, elevated valuations for a variety of assets are causing investors to reconsider narratives around themes, such as AI investment, and consider asset allocation tweaks. Investors should resist positioning portfolios for any one political outcome and remember that increased market volatility around elections is common. In the following report, we discuss our views on five common election-related narratives in the marketplace today.
Market Matters: July 31, 2024
Global equities advanced in July, with performance characterized by a rotation away from large-cap growth stocks in favor of small caps and value.
Should Investors Chase the Bitcoin and Gold Rallies?
No. While recent developments may be a sign that bitcoin is gaining credibility, it remains a highly speculative investment that offers no cash flows.
Super Tuesday Kicks 2024 US Election Cycle into Full Swing
Today many US states are concurrently holding primaries, which are critical for presidential hopefuls to secure delegates.
2024 Outlook: Public Equities
We expect global equity performance will be below its long-term median level, but we believe investors should hold equity allocations in line with policy targets. Within equities, we see opportunities in developed value, developed small caps, and China. We doubt European and emerging markets ex China equities will outperform, and we believe the share of active strategies that outperform will increase.