2024 New Zealand Outlook: A Slow Road Ahead
Our outlook for New Zealand is mixed in 2024. We expect economic growth and equity market to remain muted. In contrast, we remain positive on New Zealand government bonds.
Authored by: Aaron Costello
2024 Outlook: Private Equity & Venture Capital
We expect US venture capital down rounds will increase, even as artificial intelligence continues to serve as a major catalyst within the market. We believe flows to European turnaround and value strategies will increase and flows to China private investments will remain muted. We expect secondary transaction volume will increase to a record level.
VantagePoint: Asia Opportunities Amid Shifting Geopolitics – Part II
The shifting geopolitical realities between the United States and China have already impacted trade and investment flows. In this two-part series of VantagePoint, we review this reality and consider investment implications alongside those of other key factors—such as domestic structural developments, macroeconomic conditions, and valuations. In Part I, we focused on opportunities in China specifically. In this companion piece, we discuss investment opportunities beyond China.
VantagePoint: Asia Opportunities Amid Shifting Geopolitics – Part I
The shifting geopolitical realities between the United States and China have already impacted trade and investment flows. In this two-part series of VantagePoint, we review this reality and consider investment implications alongside those of other key factors—such as domestic structural developments, macroeconomic conditions, and valuations. In Part I, we focus on opportunities in China specifically, and in Part II, we discuss other Asian investment opportunities beyond China.
Will Japanese Equities Continue to Outperform?
No, we do not think it is likely that Japanese equities can meaningfully outperform in the near term, given growing headwinds from the slowing global manufacturing cycle, possible monetary tightening, and potential Japanese yen strength.
US Limits Semiconductor, Quantum Computing, and AI Investments in China
Yesterday, US President Biden issued an Executive Order (EO) limiting US investments in China in three technology sectors—semiconductors and microelectronics, certain artificial intelligence systems, and quantum information technologies—in 2024 and beyond.
Is China’s Economy Stalling?
No. Economic growth in China is likely to reach 5% this year, which is in line with government targets and consensus forecasts.
Asia Insights: Navigating Higher Rates and Volatility
In this edition of Asia Insights, we highlight areas in public equities, private investments, real assets, and hedge funds where we continue to find opportunities, despite the current environment of higher rates and market uncertainty.
2023 New Zealand Outlook: The Inflation Battle Continues
New Zealand markets had difficulty gaining ground in 2022, although they still demonstrated greater resilience than many of their global counterparts. For 2023, the weakening outlook for domestic growth and the prospect of more restrictive interest rates remain key risks to New Zealand market performance.
ASEAN Equities: Surprising to the Upside
Southeast Asia, also known as ASEAN (The Association of Southeast Asian Nations), was a relative safe haven for investors in 2022. In this paper, we analyse the factors that have supported ASEAN equities, including the country/sector composition of the ASEAN market, the earnings outlook for the region, and the currency basket. We also show that the ASEAN market looks different today versus 2013, when the region experienced headwinds due to elevated valuations coupled with a collapse in commodity prices and the Federal Reserve’s tapering cycle.