Research Publications Archive

How Far Will Rates Rise? Revisited

Three years ago, we concluded that benchmark ten-year Treasury yields would top out in a 3.5%–4.0% range in the next monetary tightening cycle. Now that the next rate hike cycle is well underway, we revisit our analysis, finding that our original assessment remains the most probable conclusion. In fact, the low end of that ceiling appears the more likely outcome today, with one important caveat: the potential for an inflationary dynamic that surprises.

Private Credit Strategies: An Introduction

Private credit offers distinct advantages and appeal in a low return environment, but investors should be aware that behind the name is a diverse array of strategies, some more familiar to institutional investors than others, each with idiosyncratic risks. In this report, we describe the broad array of private credit strategies and position them along the risk/return spectrum, review the investment process, discuss expectations for the performance of these strategies in various parts of the economic cycle, and highlight some key risks for investors to consider.

Policy Benchmarking: A Guide to Best Practices

Policy benchmarking is a critical component of building and managing a successful investment program. In this paper we set out our comprehensive benchmarking framework and then zero in on the policy benchmark as the primary reference point for evaluating investment decisions.

Real Asset Dynamics: August 2017

A number of Asian private equity real estate managers that we view favorably are likely to fundraise in the latter half of 2017 and first half of 2018. We expect that many of these managers, while performing well, will face challenges raising additional capital as limited partners question the merits of investing in Asian property. In particular, US investors perceive the market to be overheated and have concerns about foreign currency risks. In this edition of Real Asset Dynamics, we examine and analyze these concerns further.