Research Publications Archive

What’s Next for the US Dollar?

We still expect a rising US dollar over the coming year or so; however, the currency is entering the final phase of the strong-dollar cycle and investors should be aware that valuations and historical cycles suggest USD weakness over the coming decade.

A Supportive Argument for Structured Credit

Asset-backed securities enjoy favorable fundamentals and are positioned to outperform high-yield bonds and leveraged loans in 2017, but investors should be selective—valuations are stretched in parts of the market and some sectors face regulatory headwinds.

Annual Analysis of Cultural and Environmental Institution Investment Pool Returns: Fiscal Year 2016

This report reviews portfolio returns, asset allocation, investment manager structures, and net flow data for 54 cultural and environmental institutions. Analysis and exhibits include asset class returns, performance attribution, risk analytics, policy portfolio benchmarking, the impact of private investment programs on portfolio liquidity, the use of external managers by asset class, and net flow rates.

Emerging Markets Equity Manager Performance: 2016

Calendar year 2016 marked the first time since 2009 that emerging markets managers underperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gross of fees. This chart book is our annual summary of the absolute and relative performance of managers that report to our database. New exhibits this year examine managers’ sector and geographic allocations relative to the index and assess the presence/absence of factors that can create a more favorable environment for active management.

Global Equity Manager Performance: 2016

Calendar year 2016 marked only the third time in the past ten years that global equity managers underperformed the MSCI World Index. This chart book is our annual summary of the absolute and relative performance of managers that report to our database. New exhibits this year examine managers’ sector and geographic allocations relative to the index, as well as the impact of US equities on performance.

Decades of Data: 1900–2016

In over 35 different analyses and 100 charts, our annual report on the history of global markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds. This year’s edition includes new sections on recent trends in the macro environment and business cycles, as well as several new exhibits in other sections. The appendix to this report shows year-by-year, cumulative, and average annual compound returns for as much as 117 years of market data for Australia, Japan, the UK, and the US.

The Final Phase of USD Strength

History implies the US dollar has more to rise before this strong dollar cycle is over; however, much depends on the fiscal and trade policies enacted by politicians and the responses from global central banks. This chart book provides currency views and historical analysis of momentum, valuation, and fundamentals for five major currencies: USD, GBP, EUR, CHF, and JPY.