No. We continue to think investors should tightly manage risk by keeping equity allocations and bond duration in line with broad policy targets and resist the temptation to time the market.
Following no US bank failures in the last two years, two banks failed in the last three days—Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. As the situation evolved last week, investors, businesses, and regulators became increasingly concerned about SVB and risks to the broader economy. Over the weekend, US officials from the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and FDIC released a joint statement saying that all deposit holders at both banks will be kept whole, even their uninsured deposits, and the Fed established a new Bank Term Funding Program. In addition, the UK Prime Minister and Bank of England helped arrange the sale of SVB’s UK subsidiary to HSBC. Taken together, these actions significantly decrease contagion risks associated with the collapse of these two banks.
The 2022 US edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.
New Zealand markets had difficulty gaining ground in 2022, although they still demonstrated greater resilience than many of their global counterparts. For 2023, the weakening outlook for domestic growth and the prospect of more restrictive interest rates remain key risks to New Zealand market performance.
No, while the recent outperformance and positivity surrounding Eurozone equities was justified by shifts in the macroeconomic landscape, we do not have confidence that outperformance will continue, given the challenges still facing the region. Therefore, we suggest investors keep Eurozone equity allocations in line with policy weights.
Our 2022 Endowment Radar Study reflects the important role of the endowment in the dynamic private college and university business model. The endowment played a relatively smaller role in supporting growing operating budgets and financial aid commitments compared to 2021.
Investing can often feel like steering a ship through stormy seas, traversing risks seen and unseen. Adopting a more disciplined approach to investing for social and environmental equity can help investors minimize portfolio risk and maximize impact, even during flagging markets. In this paper, we review the momentum experienced in sustainable and impact investing and the historical relationship between global recessions and inequality. We then explain the rationale for staying the course during turbulent times, and introduce a framework designed to help investors produce better financial and impact outcomes in any market cycle.
While many options exist as a result of the Special Financial Assistance (SFA) program for underfunded multiemployer pension plans, a plan-specific, holistic approach that combines multiple investment strategies is most likely to generate optimal outcomes. This paper provides a guide to plan sponsors as they seek to make the most effective use of their SFA program capital.
A healthcare system’s investment structure is intentionally aligned to match varying enterprise needs over the short, intermediate, and long term. Most have gravitated toward the use of tiers—pools of capital delineated as available immediately (operating cash), within the next few years (short-duration bonds), or strategically over time (long-term investment pools). However, the need for capital flexibility and liquidity has grown as the demands of providing care have become more complex. Fortunately, higher interest rates have made the return profile of highly liquid, short-duration tiers more attractive. As a result, we expect many hospitals will benefit from allocating any new funds that come available to short-term tiers, given the yields available in short rates and superior liquidity.
No, it’s not over, but the worst of it is past us. After the liquid token market’s remarkable January, some called an early spring.