Research Publications Archive

The Rise and Fall of the S&P 500

Over the course of the 18.25-year bull market, more than half of the market’s capital appreciation was driven by inflation and the decline in interest rates, and another 20% by multiple expansion, leaving only about 20% of the appreciation attributable to real earnings growth. Between March 31, 2000 and March 31, 2002, inflation continued to…

Household Equity Ownership Trends

Equity ownership remains low in Europe due to undeveloped public equity markets, generous pension plans, and the lack of tax incentives. European bulls cite the following to argue that ownership will rise: (1) the bull market of the late 1990s raised awareness of equities, (2) with falling interest rates, Europeans are looking to equities for…

Japan’s Bank Crisis

As of April 1, 2002, the Japanese government will cease guaranteeing time deposits in excess of ¥10 million ($75,200) against the possibility of bank failure, leaving an estimated ¥200 trillion ($1.5 trillion) in bank deposits unprotected. Proponents of postponement of the deadline are worried that the limit on deposit insurance will prompt bank runs, especially…

Earnings Recovery

Despite the persistent fall in equity prices, analyst expectations of S&P 500 earnings remain quite optimistic. Historical precedent suggests that earnings could well rebound within the time horizon envisaged by analysts, but are unlikely to prove as robust as they expect.

Japanese Distressed Investing

An assessment of the investment opportunities resulting from a debilitating combination of successive recessions in Japan and the reluctance of government officials to enact and enforce financial sector reforms. Key topics include market risks, supply of distressed assets, strategies to capitalize on the opportunity, and investment vehicles and fund structures.

Three Key Issues for 2002 & Beyond

Three key issues will determine the prospects for the global economy: the likelihood of an impending recovery proving feeble or robust, and the outlook for sustainable longer-term growth.