As the Cycles Turn
A look at what history tells us to expect as the earnings, business, and stock market cycles converge.
Research Publications Archive
High-Yield Bonds: Be Selective
While we remain bearish on high-yield bonds in general, experienced and talented managers should have a plethora of profit opportunities as spreads widen and defaults rise.
Structured Products: Buyer Beware
While structured products may benefit investors that seek principal protection or have a differentiated view from that of the market, they are not normally the best investment choice due to their high costs and complicated structures.
Outlook 2008: A Year of Living Dangerously
2008 may prove to be a particularly dangerous year, as slowing U.S. and global growth force a turning of the profit and credit-default cycle, the consequences of which equity markets are not well prepared for.
The More Things Change …
While the impressive run-up in Asian equities has caused us to become more cautious on a tactical basis, it has done little to change our long-term bullish outlook for the region.
The Dénouement Begins
We continue to view U.S. equities as overvalued based on both valuations and the difficult economic environment, but advocate tactical bets within U.S. equities rather than a substantial underweight.
Curbed Enthusiasm
European markets are not setting up for a standout 2008.
The Pause That Refreshes?
Narrow market participation and weak financial shares may spell more trouble after the November jolt.
EM: What to do, What to do…
While the long-term case for emerging markets equities remains intact, now is not the time to overweight emerging markets equities as soaring valuations and a blind faith in “decoupling” leave them quite vulnerable in the near term.
Japan: Stay the Course?
Negative investor sentiment and susceptibility to the effects of a global downturn make Japanese equities a risky short-term proposition, but valuations, relatively steady economic fundamentals, and strong corporate profits argue for an overweight position on the part of those with the patience to tolerate any potential short- to intermediate-term underperformance.