Taking the Measure of Continuing Credit Market Stresses
Short-term borrowing spreads, corporate issuance, and implied volatility have improved, but remain at stressed levels.
Research Publications Archive
Asia ex Japan 2009: The Moment of Truth
The year 2009 will reveal whether Asia’s growth over the past few years reflected real structural changes rather than debt-fueled U.S. consumption.
Japan 2009 – Darkest Before the Dawn
While the macroeconomic outlook for Japan is not encouraging, Japanese equities have gone the furthest in pricing in a dismal 2009. Given the market’s depressed valuations, it may not take much to spark a rally, especially if the global economy begins to stabilize.
The Worst of Times—Or the Best of Times
Investors should move toward benchmark weights in U.K. and European equities based upon good valuations, but the near-term outlook remains problematic given poor economic conditions and earnings that have not yet corrected from cyclical highs.
Who Will Be First Out of the Bunker?
Attractive opportunities abound (in equities and especially in credit), but the pervasive economic gloom will get worse before it gets better. Download PDF
U.S. Venture Capital Investing
While the recent uncertainty and volatility in economic and financial markets have made it difficult to ascertain the outlook for the venture capital market, these conditions may also serve to create a better supply/demand balance down the road. We continue to regard select high-quality venture capital managers as an effective means to capture returns from…
Inflation-Linked Bonds in a Deflationary Environment
Despite mounting concerns over deflation, inflation-linked bonds offer low-cost insurance against a deflationary future, and look increasingly attractive relative to nominal government bonds at today’s historically low yields.
Global Equity Investing
In a broad and integrated global equity market, realization of portfolio goals increasingly requires investors to adopt both an appropriate global equity investment strategy and a well-thought-out implementation plan that includes decisions regarding portfolio structure. This structure should enable investors to easily dial exposure up or down among sectors, regions, styles, and capitalization sizes. “Global…
The Case for Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds
Today’s economic environment and current yields and spreads make investment-grade bonds an asset class worthy of consideration, but this would be a tactical bet with potentially significant downside if the exit is poorly timed.
U.S. Equity Style Performance – It’s All Relative
Market leadership shifted abruptly toward high-quality mega-cap stocks over October and November, yet despite the sharp recent improvement in relative valuations of small caps and value stocks, we still think it is too early to switch from a defensive high-quality portfolio in the current environment.