European Bank Stress Adds to Economic Growth Challenges
On 20 March, investors awoke to news Swiss authorities had used emergency measures to push through a hastily arranged merger of Credit Suisse and UBS. Following two recent bank failures in the United States, the announcement raised questions over the health of European banks and the broader economy.
Last Week at a Glance
Most assets ended the week in positive territory but were mired by volatility, as central banks attempted to restore confidence in the banking sector.
Spending Policies and Practices: Fiscal Year 2022
Annual distributions from the endowment are a source of supplemental operating revenue for most endowed institutions. An institution’s endowment spending policy provides a basis for the calculation of the annual distribution, serving as a bridge that links the long-term investment portfolio and the enterprise. The data and analysis in this report review the various spending rule types used among our endowment clients. Also included are analyses on the endowment’s support of operations and effective spending rate.
The End of the Fed’s Tightening Cycle Nears
Today, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds target range by 25 basis points (bps), to 4.75%–5.00%, as expected, and signaled it expects at least another 25 bps of additional rate hikes will be necessary to bring down inflation. This announcement and the recent turmoil in the banking sector increase our confidence that the Fed is nearly done tightening.
US Pensions: Higher Interest Rates Call for a Fixed Income Reassessment
In more uncertain investment environments, pension plan sponsors should remember that down markets can create value opportunities for well diversified portfolios. This paper discusses how recent developments in the fixed income market may be able to help total return-seeking pension plan portfolios, frozen plans looking to de-risk, and open or recently closed pension plan portfolios.
Has Our Broad Investment Outlook Changed Considering the Recent Bank Collapses?
No. We continue to think investors should tightly manage risk by keeping equity allocations and bond duration in line with broad policy targets and resist the temptation to time the market.
Regulators Seek to Contain SVB Fallout
Following no US bank failures in the last two years, two banks failed in the last three days—Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. As the situation evolved last week, investors, businesses, and regulators became increasingly concerned about SVB and risks to the broader economy. Over the weekend, US officials from the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and FDIC released a joint statement saying that all deposit holders at both banks will be kept whole, even their uninsured deposits, and the Fed established a new Bank Term Funding Program. In addition, the UK Prime Minister and Bank of England helped arrange the sale of SVB’s UK subsidiary to HSBC. Taken together, these actions significantly decrease contagion risks associated with the collapse of these two banks.
Decades of Data: United States 1900–2022
The 2022 US edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.
2023 New Zealand Outlook: The Inflation Battle Continues
New Zealand markets had difficulty gaining ground in 2022, although they still demonstrated greater resilience than many of their global counterparts. For 2023, the weakening outlook for domestic growth and the prospect of more restrictive interest rates remain key risks to New Zealand market performance.
Will the Outperformance of Eurozone Equities Persist?
No, while the recent outperformance and positivity surrounding Eurozone equities was justified by shifts in the macroeconomic landscape, we do not have confidence that outperformance will continue, given the challenges still facing the region. Therefore, we suggest investors keep Eurozone equity allocations in line with policy weights.
Tactical CA House Views
Highlights our latest portfolio advice and reviews notable data for over 50 asset classes/sub-strategies, with key charts and views from our asset class specialists. Read a short introduction →
Market Matters: February 28, 2023
Monthly review of market action with the key charts for the month and a snapshot of index performance in major currencies
VantagePoint: Too Much Optimism Amid Uncertainty
CA’s house view and advice, written by our Chief Investment Strategist, Celia Dallas
Endowments Quarterly: Fourth Quarter 2022
Summarizes asset allocation and total investment performance for over 400 of Cambridge Associates’ endowment and foundation clients
Hedge Fund Update: Fourth Quarter 2022
Insights from the leaders of our hedge fund research on what drove performance in the quarter
US Manager Universe Statistics: Fourth Quarter 2022
Presents quarterly representative long-only and hedge fund manager performance.
Analysis of the performance shown in our private investment benchmarks