US

Small-Cap Stocks Present Large Opportunity

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US small-cap stocks have underperformed large-cap peers in recent years, opening a significant valuation discount that seems hard to justify based on relative earnings strength or balance sheet health. The sector exposure of small-cap stocks may make them better positioned for the current environment of rising interest rates and high commodity prices. While small caps should always be a part of investors’ tool kits, now is an especially opportune time to add exposure, given historically low valuations.

VantagePoint: Resilience in a Time of Uncertainty

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Global inflation has been higher and more persistent than most economists anticipated. In this edition of VantagePoint, we evaluate current inflationary and deflationary crosscurrents and the implications for investors. We continue to believe that predicting the future path of inflation is difficult to do well and that the best protection is a well-constructed diversified portfolio designed to meet the asset owner’s risk tolerance, portfolio objectives, and spending needs.

Fed Raises Rates and Begins Balance Sheet Run-off

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the target range for the Fed funds rate 50 basis points (bps) to 0.75%–1.00%. It also formalized plans to reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet starting June 1, with an initial monthly cap of $47.5 billion, rising to $95 billion per month on September 1.

Higher Rates Are a Headwind, but US Housing Rests on Solid Foundations

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The US housing market has been on a tear in recent years, supported by low interest rates, favorable supply/demand dynamics, and a recent boost from the pandemic-related demand for more space. This publication provides an update on some of the macro forces supporting housing and describes different asset classes that offer exposure to US housing.

Decades of Data: United States 1900–2021

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The 2021 US edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.