The 2022 US edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.
In this edition of VantagePoint, we explore the improvement in economic conditions, prospects for recession in the United States and Europe, the degree to which markets are pricing in reasonable economic and earnings prospects, and sensible asset allocation considerations.
This publication presents manager performance for 36 asset classes and substrategies, showing the median, mean, and key percentiles of return. Relevant indexes for each asset class are also included to provide market context.
Calendar year 2022 witnessed multi-decade record inflation and central banks responded with rapidly tightening monetary policy. Rising rates saw the correlation between bonds and equities turn positive, contributing to large declines across most asset classes. Funds flows diverted away from growth and momentum strategies, and yield curves flattened with the ten-year/two-year yield curve becoming inverted in most developed markets, signaling economic uncertainty ahead.
Just one year after the best investment returns endowments had seen in decades, fiscal year 2022 brought about the most challenging market environment since the Global Financial Crisis of the late 2000s. Our annual survey-based report of 158 US colleges and universities includes commentary and analysis of investment performance, asset allocation, and related trends. We also review peer data on topics such as investment policy, portfolio manager structures, spending, and investment office staffing and governance.
Yes, it is likely that the “softish landing” implied by forward consensus earnings expectations will fail to transpire.
In first half 2022, US private equity and venture capital broke their trend of sustained positive performance as the downturn in the public markets spilled over to privates.
This publication presents manager performance for 37 asset classes and substrategies, showing the median, mean, and key percentiles of return. Relevant indexes for each asset class are also included to provide market context.
In this edition of VantagePoint, we review three big questions that are central to the path of the markets: 1) Will the US Fed pivot away from aggressive tightening?; 2) Will China move away from its zero-COVID policy?; and 3) Will Europe successfully manage its transition away from Russian energy imports?
Yes. The hawkish Federal Reserve and energy market challenges have contributed to a strengthening of the US dollar in recent quarters, and we expect that trends in both factors may continue to be supportive of the dollar in the short term. Nonetheless, on a longer horizon, historical precedents suggest that the dollar is approaching the end of a multiyear bull run.