Indexing to S&P 500–Risky?
Despite the dramatic fall in equity prices since March 2000, today’s S&P 500 still carries a great deal of intrinsic risk relative to its past.
US
The Current State of Play
Despite the severity of the peak-to-trough declines in the Nasdaq and S&P 500, it is hard to make the case that most equity investors have been put through the wringer of a serious bear market.
Putting the U.S. Equity Market in Perspective
A look at major U.S. equity indexes returns over one-, two-, and five-year periods to put the ongoing decline in perspective.
Re-examining the Wealth Effect
Several recent studies challenge the validity and pervasiveness of the wealth effect. One report complains about flaws in the methodology behind the calculation of personal savings, while others suggest that the propensity to consume may have moved to a permanent and higher level, which would be less vulnerable to stock market weakness. These arguments hold…
The U.S. Equity Market: Where Are We Now?
This analysis considers investor psychology within the larger tapestry of economic stress points and equity valuations. Although investor sentiment has sobered over the last year, it has not approached the level of despair or pessimism that typically signals capitulation at market bottoms. Optimists cite several macroeconomic indicators as reasons for their continued confidence, while pessimists…
Tech Spending
Over the last five years, investment in technology grew at an average annual rate of 25% in real terms, accounting for anywhere from 20% to 33% of total economic growth. Having over-invested during the expansion’s heady years, corporations are in the uncomfortable process of digesting excesses. If the virtuous cycle indeed turns vicious, the slowdown…
Inside the U.S. Equity Market
The persistent disparity among valuations across different sectors indicates the likelihood that high P/E stocks will continue to disappoint; while overlooked issues at the other end of the valuation spectrum should outperform. The proportion of lofty P/E stocks within the overall market is gradually shrinking. Despite value’s trouncing of growth last year, we suspect this…
U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities: Fixed Income Substitute?
This report focuses on TIPS` behavior during severe economic contraction, evaluating whether a portfolio composed of equities and TIPS will weather a prolonged economic contraction as effectively as a more conventional portfolio composed of equities and nominal bonds. The report provides a supplement to our previous research report on TIPS.
U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
An introduction to U.S. TIPS, their performance and correlations to other assets classes, as well as the various rationales for a TIPS allocation and investing strategies.
Enhanced U.S. Equity Indexing
Investors index to achieve portfolio diversification at the lowest possible cost, but abandon any chance of outperforming the chosen benchmark. In contrast, active investors pay higher fees and incur the risk of underperforming the benchmark because they believe their managers will add value over time. With lower fees than active management, close benchmark tracking, but…