Earnings Growth: Don’t Bank On It
The financial sector contributed 30%–40% of S&P 500 earnings in 2002–04, but odds are against this trend continuing.
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History and the Latest Bear Market Rally
While the latest rally has been far more explosive than others since the onset of the bear market in 2000, from an historical perspective it is rather pedestrian.
US Pension Plans: Investment Considerations for Endowment Professionals
This paper provides a framework for assessing nonpublic defined benefit pension plans by examining the key characteristics of pension liabilities, various risks to consider during the asset allocation process, and risk immunization. Exhibits cover pension fund performance, liquidity constraints, liability duration, and a comparison of asset allocation differences between pensions and endowments.
Thinking About Risk?
In the fall of 2002, a confluence of factors supported greater risk taking. Today, the same factors suggest that investors focus on risk reduction and diversification.
Bear Markets, Continued
Is the bear market over? Not likely.
Puzzling Over Mid Caps
There is no simple explanation for mid caps’ recent outperformance.
Why We Believe U.S. Equities Are Still Overvalued
The S&P 500, while not exorbitantly expensive as in 2000, remains pricey nonetheless.
Dividends: Are Companies Willing & Able?
With corporations awash in cash, investors should expect (and demand) higher dividends.
Looking for Themes in a Range-Bound Market
Large-cap indices are benefiting from high-quality stocks this year.
What Next for Equities?
Following a period of stellar earnings growth, U.S. equity valuations have improved, but remain high as earnings momentum begins to decelerate.