Despite alarming headlines about rising US debt, investors should resist making drastic portfolio changes. While an immediate crisis appears unlikely, the risk could increase if the United States fails to manage its debt effectively. Therefore, reviewing potential portfolio adjustments at the margin that might enhance future returns is prudent.
This note provides an update on the current opportunity set in infrastructure investments and highlights some of our preferred areas in the private space, including energy transition and digital infrastructure.
No, not at this time. While the Trump administration’s policies will impact markets, we expect other factors will be larger drivers of long-term investment performance.
The Federal Reserve has reduced the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%–5.00%, the first reduction in over four years.
Yes, we believe that private investment in climate solutions would continue apace in a second Trump administration, given strong demand for clean energy, supportive and resilient US government policies, and robust investment opportunities that will continue to be attractive to many investors.
Markets have been jittery as the US presidential election approaches. The macro backdrop is shifting, with slowing economic growth and ebbing inflation meaning a cycle of monetary easing beckons. At the same time, elevated valuations for a variety of assets are causing investors to reconsider narratives around themes, such as AI investment, and consider asset allocation tweaks. Investors should resist positioning portfolios for any one political outcome and remember that increased market volatility around elections is common. In the following report, we discuss our views on five common election-related narratives in the marketplace today.
In this edition of VantagePoint, we find that consumers, corporations, and the banking sector remain in good shape, and while US/global economic growth is likely to slow in the second half of 2024 relative to the first, we expect it will remain positive. Although market concentration risk is elevated, given its focus on highly profitable AI-related tech stocks, we would seek to be measured about diversifying such risks.
This publication presents manager performance for 37 asset classes and substrategies, showing the median, mean, and key percentiles of return. Relevant indexes for each asset class are also included to provide market context.
No, not right now. We continue to believe investors should: (1) keep equity allocations aligned with broad policy targets; (2) maintain modest overweights in less expensive areas within equities, such as developed markets value and small caps; and (3) maintain a modest overweight in long US Treasury securities within bond portfolios.
Most risk assets enjoyed strong returns in fiscal year ended June 2024. Developed markets equities led on better-than-expected economic data and the anticipation that central banks would begin easing monetary policies.