The infrastructure market has evolved since the financial crisis. Almost a majority of current investing is now in “21st-century infrastructure,” which includes digital and renewable assets. Given the expected importance of both sectors to future growth, we anticipate that investors will commit greater amounts of capital to each in 2022.
Low yields on many liquid credit assets curbed returns in 2021, a trend that seems likely to continue in 2022.
Diversifying private credit strategies provide a good complement to portfolio mainstays. While we believe the economic outlook remains strong, it is not without risks. In direct lending, growing amounts of dry powder are pressuring deal structures and pricing. As a result, we anticipate that commitments to less-correlated private credit funds, such as those focused on life sciences, asset-based lending, and flexible credit strategies, will increase next year.
Rising inflation and moderating growth are generally associated with a higher risk premium as investors start to price in a potential shift in market regime. In the past, global macro managers have generally benefited from better alpha opportunities that arise from volatility. With this backdrop, we expect macro hedge fund performance to be better than average next year.
In the midst of heightened awareness of systemic risks in climate change and social inequality, many investors concerned about long-term portfolio resilience have used their voice to seek change that benefits all investors and the broader system. We expect investors will adopt active engagement practices to a greater extent in 2022, assuming significant policy changes around climate and social issues do not materialize.
A market environment with a wider breadth of winners and losers provides greater opportunity for skilled active managers to distinguish themselves. Given the more balanced earnings contribution across sectors relative to 2020–21 and the widely dispersed equity valuations, we expect the breadth of winners and losers will be wider in 2022.
Digital assets saw considerable inflows in recent years as investors searched for alternative sources of return amid excessive equity and bond valuations. We expect this momentum will continue next year as regulators increasingly approve easy-to-access cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Still, global regulatory challenges persist, and cryptoassets will remain highly volatile until there is more clarity on future regulation.