Advice in Brief We generally remain neutral on risky assets, but are becoming more cautious and selective as the market cycle advances and the US Federal Reserve looks to begin raising rates. We maintain our advice that investors shift more capital into safer assets as equity markets become more expensive. Volatility has been rising in…
We continue to believe US$-based investors should hedge a portion of non-US$ currency exposure, particularly that associated with tactical positions in non-US$ assets.* Strategic hedging to mitigate currency volatility may also be appropriate for investors with large allocations (e.g., 20%–25% or higher) to foreign currencies.** We maintain this recommendation even as we regard the US…
Several important central banks—most notably the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank—have recently broken the “zero bound” for interest rates by moving their official policy rates decisively into negative territory, causing rates on some money market funds and wholesale deposits denominated in those currencies to also go negative. At this pace, it may…
Over periods of prolonged prosperity, the economy transits from financial relations that make for a stable system to financial relations that make for an unstable system. —Hyman Minsky, “The Financial Instability Hypothesis,” May 1992 Stability Is Destabilizing —Minsky T-shirt Over the past several years, one of the most interesting market developments has been the virtual…
In this edition of C|A Answers, two members of our research team debate the potential for persistent deflation in the United States. Sean McLaughlin: No. The recent dip into deflation for the “headline” US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to be short-lived and does not significantly increase the likelihood of persistent deflation. Headline inflation…
A subdued growth outlook and increased volatility for many asset classes mean investors should be cautious in 2015 We continue to have concerns about the Australian macro environment and expect muted growth and inflation in Australia. China’s rebalancing economy is a top concern for Australia, combined with uncertainties in the domestic economy. Fair valuations and…
New Zealand’s economy is well positioned compared to other major economies, and especially relative to Australia, but external factors will likely impact the local economy and markets New Zealand equities are within our fair value range, though they are getting more expensive. Investors should maintain neutral allocations and, in their foreign equity exposure, overweight European…
Fasten Your Greek Belts Christel Aranda-Hassel et al., Credit Suisse, February 2, 2015 The rise of Syriza in Greece has turned the market’s attention once again to the possibility of the country leaving the Eurozone. The European economics team at Credit Suisse contends that it is in the best interest of both Greece and Europe…
Better earnings growth and attractive relative valuations support a slight overweight to Japanese equities versus US equivalents The multi-faceted nature of the Japanese earnings recovery has made Japanese equities more attractive. Further, structural reforms in Japan have been more successful than many thought would be the case early last year, and prospects for further success…
The European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) recently announced QE package—wherein the bank will buy €60 billion of public and private securities a month through at least September 2016—was widely anticipated, and as such much of the impact on markets had transpired long before Thursday. While the announcement does represent a watershed moment given the ECB is…