Is a Crisis Likely in the UK Commercial Property Sector?
No, but we do expect UK commercial property prices to re-rate to a lower level as investors grapple with the consequences of the Brexit vote.
Investment Planning
Brexit: Outlier or Harbinger?
Investors should take seriously the prospect that Brexit is different from the crop of recent crises. Given that a substantial (and growing) constituency across EU countries now supports a breakup, the risks of real departures from the Eurozone no longer seem so remote.
Will Europe and Italy Reach an Agreement on the Fate of Italian Banks?
With serious political risks and the possibility of contagion if left unresolved, a solution to the Italian banking crisis that avoids substantial hits to bank bondholders and creditors is likely.
VantagePoint: Third Quarter 2016
VantagePoint is a quarterly publication from our Chief Investment Strategist Celia Dallas summarizing CA’s total portfolio advice.
Should Investors Reposition Portfolios in Light of the UK Referendum to Leave the European Union?
No, assuming investors have heeded our advice to keep diversifying assets defensive.
Investment Publications Highlights: June 2016
June’s publication summarizes two articles related to pension plans. The first suggests corporate defined benefit pension plans seeking to improve funding levels conduct careful cost-benefit analysis, and the second argues that public pension plans improperly discount expected liabilities, raising risks among plan participants.
Building a Portfolio Based on Shariah Principles: An Investor’s Guide
The Gulf region’s rapid rise in wealth over the past two decades has prompted increasing demand for Shariah-compliant offerings. While a full suite of solutions for institutional investors is still developing, the opportunity set today is sufficient to build a Shariah-compliant portfolio that offers growth, some diversification, and some protection against macroeconomic risks.
Has the Market Become Too Complacent Too Quickly?
The market has not become too complacent and continues to register the many potential risks on the horizon.
What’s the Outlook for US Equities Given the Earnings Recession?
Risks to US equities remain firmly skewed to the downside, but as long as the Fed remains on hold and the twin earnings headwinds of weak oil/strong dollar continue to fade, US equities could continue to muddle along near recent levels.
Investment Publications Highlights: April 2016
April’s publication summarizes three articles focused on oil markets. The first reviews different approaches to developing oil price expectations, arguing that each has faults; the second suggests oil prices may have hit a bottom in February; and the third highlights “good”, “bad,” and “ugly” aspects affecting oil prices today.