Equity markets outperformed other asset classes, while monetary policy expectations continued to negatively impact bond markets during the fiscal year ending June 30, 2017. This brief chart book looks at returns and other market metrics for fiscal year 2017.
If passing the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act in July 2010 did not spawn direct lending, what did? In this analysis we explore the genesis of the recent direct lending phenomenon to identify risks to the strategy and what investors should watch going forward.
Some market participants have feared the worst for direct lending from a potential repeal of The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. In this brief, we review the data and show that changes in banks’ lending behavior cannot clearly be traced to the passage of Dodd-Frank or its implementation.
Yes. Issuance of ultra-long Treasury bonds (greater than 30 years to maturity, including potentially 40-, 50-, and 100-year maturities) would benefit multiple constituents.
This chart book presents representative long-only and hedge fund manager performance for first quarter 2017. The median Emerging and Frontier Markets Equity manager posted the highest return for the quarter (11.9%), while the median US Small-Cap Value manager posted the highest return for the trailing one-year period (23.7%). The median Cash Management manager posted the lowest return for the quarter (0.3%); for the trailing one year, the median manager in only one strategy, Global ex US Bonds, posted a negative return (-1.3%).
Although the election results provide a powerful “risk-on” catalyst in the short term, the underlying long-term problems facing France and the Eurozone are unlikely to go away under a Macron presidency, so the old adage “sell in May and go away” may be vindicated yet again.
We remain negative on high-yield bonds and only slightly more positive on leveraged loans, preferring other credit assets and strategies to help diversify portfolios.
No. If the interest expense deduction is eliminated, debt issuance may drop slightly, but the demand for senior and mezzanine debt will be little changed, and the risk/reward proposition is still attractive for investors.
Asset-backed securities enjoy favorable fundamentals and are positioned to outperform high-yield bonds and leveraged loans in 2017, but investors should be selective—valuations are stretched in parts of the market and some sectors face regulatory headwinds.
In over 35 different analyses and 100 charts, our annual report on the history of global markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds. This year’s edition includes new sections on recent trends in the macro environment and business cycles, as well as several new exhibits in other sections. The appendix to this report shows year-by-year, cumulative, and average annual compound returns for as much as 117 years of market data for Australia, Japan, the UK, and the US.