Credit/Fixed Income

Are the Forces Creating Record Low Government Bond Yields Here to Stay?

Investors that buy developed markets government bonds have been faced with unpalatably skimpy or even negative yields on offer for some time. The question is no longer why, but for how long? Fed funds futures and benchmark ten-year US Treasuries suggest the answer is several more years, a similar timeline to other markets. But as we know, markets have a tendency to surprise.

Decades of Data: 1900–2015

In over 25 different analyses and 100 charts, our annual analysis of the history of global markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds. This year’s edition is accompanied by an appendix showing year-by-year, cumulative, and average annual compound returns for as much as 115 years of market data for Australia, Japan, the UK, and the US.