Europe

Brexit’s Crescendo and UK Investors: Tuning Out the Noise

Though developments and headlines associated with the UK’s Article 50 negotiations with the EU to exit the trading bloc have been fitful, their impact thus far on the underlying fundamentals of the UK economy and sterling-denominated assets, particularly UK equities, has been moderate. Because Brexit is a political process with two-way tail risks, it warrants close monitoring but is not a good foundation for a tactical investment position By the same token, UK investors should avoid factoring in expectations of specific potential Brexit outcomes into strategic decisions regarding currency exposures.

Investment Publications Highlights: March 2017

March’s publication summarizes three articles on the current political landscape in Europe. The first explores structural challenges to the euro area’s stability; the second highlights potential outcomes related to the United Kingdom’s exit negotiations with the EU; and the third reviews five shifts beyond politics that are impacting European markets.

Has the British Pound Bottomed?

We expect further weakness in the British pound as uncertainty over the economic impact of “Brexit” drives the currency toward GBP/USD 1.15, and an even larger decline cannot be ruled out.