We don’t think so. Investors with diversified portfolios already have some cushion if equities sell off, and trying to time the market by buying derivatives or substantially reducing equity exposure is rife with behavioral risks.
Calendar year 2016 marked the first time since 2009 that emerging markets managers underperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gross of fees. This chart book is our annual summary of the absolute and relative performance of managers that report to our database. New exhibits this year examine managers’ sector and geographic allocations relative to the index and assess the presence/absence of factors that can create a more favorable environment for active management.
Calendar year 2016 marked only the third time in the past ten years that global equity managers underperformed the MSCI World Index. This chart book is our annual summary of the absolute and relative performance of managers that report to our database. New exhibits this year examine managers’ sector and geographic allocations relative to the index, as well as the impact of US equities on performance.
In over 35 different analyses and 100 charts, our annual report on the history of global markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds. This year’s edition includes new sections on recent trends in the macro environment and business cycles, as well as several new exhibits in other sections. The appendix to this report shows year-by-year, cumulative, and average annual compound returns for as much as 117 years of market data for Australia, Japan, the UK, and the US.
Some of the reflation trades that received a boost from the US election look to be merely taking a breather as investors square positions; however, the fundamental support for others—particularly the outperformance of US small-cap equities—is challenged.
This chart book presents representative long-only and hedge fund manager performance for fourth quarter 2016. The median US Small-Cap Value manager posted the highest median return for fourth quarter 2016 (10.7%) and the year (24.2%). The median Global ex US Bonds manager posted the lowest median return for fourth quarter 2016 (-6.9%), while the Global Growth Equity ex US median return was lowest for the year (-1.1%).
Investors navigating the marketplace in 2016 witnessed uneven advances in equity markets, record low yields in bond markets, and a recovery in commodity markets. This chart book reviews returns and other metrics for the calendar year.
Change is in the air and the prospect for a bit of sunshine to break through the overhang of slow growth and lower-for-longer yields is palpable. Of course, the sun doesn’t shine forever, and overall our views are little changed. The things we have been worried about for some time—high valuations for certain risk assets, record-low interest rates, slow economic growth—have not gone away. The surest call to make for 2017 is that higher growth expectations will be paired with the distinct possibility of negative outcomes, putting a premium on diversification and liquidity management.
In light of markets’ initial reaction to the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election, we wanted to remind clients of our approach to portfolio management by providing thoughts from our Chief Investment Strategist, Celia Dallas.
October’s publication summarizes three articles related to index investing and market crowding. The first argues index investing has led to a substantial increase in the co-movement of equity securities, the second suggests the rise in index investing has decreased investors’ ability to diversify portfolios, and the third highlights that investors should consider factor strategies, even if their source of return is well known.