Is the Decline in Chinese Equities Justified by Market Fundamentals?
We don’t think so, as the markets are pricing in more severe conditions than we believe are warranted.
Asia/Pacific
2022 New Zealand Outlook: Balancing the Pivot
New Zealand’s COVID-19 containment strategy served the economy well during the early days of the pandemic. However, New Zealand equities and bonds suffered in 2021 as growth slowed to a halt late in the year due to lockdown measures and inflation moved higher due to labour market constraints. Heading into 2022, New Zealand authorities have pivoted the strategy from zero–COVID-19 to minimisation and protection, while still embarking on a monetary policy tightening cycle. Balancing both strategies will be key to supporting New Zealand’s economic growth in 2022.
China A-Shares Outperform Global Equities
China’s equity markets have lagged global equities sharply thus far in 2021 in the face of a regulatory crackdown. We expect Chinese equities, particularly China onshore A-shares, to outperform global equities in 2022.
Hedge Fund Update: Third Quarter 2021
Global capital markets were volatile during third quarter 2021. In September, equity markets gave back most of the gains made earlier in the quarter. Markets are reacting to concerning economic and inflation data, geopolitical risks, and potential central bank tightening. Core hedge fund strategies were mixed but relatively flat during the third quarter.
Has the Approaching Debt Default by Chinese Property Developer Evergrande Created Opportunities for Investors?
Yes. In recent weeks, several Chinese property developers have defaulted, and spreads on Chinese high-yield bonds have widened roughly 600 basis points (bps), taking their year-to-date loss to 18%.
VantagePoint: China – Reassessing Risks and Opportunities
As the second largest economy in the world, China remains an important destination for global investor capital. Yet, the pace and scope of China’s regulatory crackdown are causing concern. In this edition of VantagePoint, we review the nature of regulatory developments and their impact on the investment opportunity set. We believe that dedicated, strategic allocations to Chinese assets are still warranted. Investors should carefully consider their sector exposure and evaluate managers’ capabilities in the current regulatory and geopolitical environment.
Contagion Risk From China Evergrande Likely Low
Fears that a default by China Evergrande Group could trigger a financial crisis has led to some weakness in global equities in recent days, with the MSCI All Country World Index falling 3.5% from its peak. While Evergrande is likely to default and require a major restructuring, we view fears of a broader financial crisis as overblown.
ESG Challenges and Opportunities in Chinese Equities
Investor interest in China has grown over the years as China’s economy expanded and the market opened up to foreign capital. However, environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues remain a key concern for many investors.
Is China Targeting Foreign Investors Amid the Tech Crackdown?
No. While the ongoing regulatory crackdown on technology companies in China is unsettling markets, it is not specifically targeting foreign investors.
Do Prospects Remain Bright for Investors in Japanese Small-Cap Stocks?
Yes. We believe the underperformance of Japanese small-cap stocks in recent years will reverse, boosted by attractive relative valuations, stronger balance sheets, and growing pressure from shareholders and regulators.