Is China’s Economy Stalling?
No. Economic growth in China is likely to reach 5% this year, which is in line with government targets and consensus forecasts.
Asia/Pacific
Asia Insights: Navigating Higher Rates and Volatility
In this edition of Asia Insights, we highlight areas in public equities, private investments, real assets, and hedge funds where we continue to find opportunities, despite the current environment of higher rates and market uncertainty.
2023 New Zealand Outlook: The Inflation Battle Continues
New Zealand markets had difficulty gaining ground in 2022, although they still demonstrated greater resilience than many of their global counterparts. For 2023, the weakening outlook for domestic growth and the prospect of more restrictive interest rates remain key risks to New Zealand market performance.
VantagePoint: Too Much Optimism Amid Uncertainty
In this edition of VantagePoint, we explore the improvement in economic conditions, prospects for recession in the United States and Europe, the degree to which markets are pricing in reasonable economic and earnings prospects, and sensible asset allocation considerations.
ASEAN Equities: Surprising to the Upside
Southeast Asia, also known as ASEAN (The Association of Southeast Asian Nations), was a relative safe haven for investors in 2022. In this paper, we analyse the factors that have supported ASEAN equities, including the country/sector composition of the ASEAN market, the earnings outlook for the region, and the currency basket. We also show that the ASEAN market looks different today versus 2013, when the region experienced headwinds due to elevated valuations coupled with a collapse in commodity prices and the Federal Reserve’s tapering cycle.
Review of Market Performance: Calendar Year 2022
Calendar year 2022 witnessed multi-decade record inflation and central banks responded with rapidly tightening monetary policy. Rising rates saw the correlation between bonds and equities turn positive, contributing to large declines across most asset classes. Funds flows diverted away from growth and momentum strategies, and yield curves flattened with the ten-year/two-year yield curve becoming inverted in most developed markets, signaling economic uncertainty ahead.
VantagePoint: Three Big Questions
In this edition of VantagePoint, we review three big questions that are central to the path of the markets: 1) Will the US Fed pivot away from aggressive tightening?; 2) Will China move away from its zero-COVID policy?; and 3) Will Europe successfully manage its transition away from Russian energy imports?
Asia Insights: Playing Defense
Asian markets have had a difficult year, but while the current environment has been challenging for most investments, it has also created an opportunity for more defensive and diversifying strategies to add value. In this edition of Asia Insights, we focus on the case for Asia quality strategies within public equities; increased interest in India and Southeast Asia venture capital markets; private infrastructure and private credit as defensive strategies; and the value in Asia macro and equity long/short.
Building a Lasting Family Legacy in Asia: Values, Governance, and Policy
As next gen investors and principal wealth owners think about meeting both near- and long-term wealth management challenges, they should consider three core pillars of building a lasting family legacy: shared values, strong wealth governance, and a clear, long-term investment policy.
Do Renewed COVID-19 Lockdowns in China Change the Outlook for Chinese Equities?
No. Despite the recent spate of lockdowns in China, we still anticipate some form of easing of the current zero-COVID policy and increased support for the economy following the Party Congress in October.