Asian and global market volatility surged in early 2025 as US tariffs triggered global growth fears. Given the export-oriented nature of most Asian economies and their sensitivity to global growth and demand, the region may bear the brunt of US tariffs. As such, Asia market volatility is likely to persist in the near term, particularly since US trade policy can shift abruptly.
Global equities tumbled nearly last week following the announcement of US tariffs on April 2, with the rout continuing into Monday, April 7.
Most risk assets enjoyed strong returns in the calendar year (CY) ended December 31, 2024. US equities led on better-than-expected economic data and AI-related growth.
This note provides an update on the current opportunity set in infrastructure investments and highlights some of our preferred areas in the private space, including energy transition and digital infrastructure.
With the global economy showing signs of cooling and Chinese economic momentum remaining weak, the outlook for Asian markets is increasingly mixed.
In this edition of VantagePoint, we find that consumers, corporations, and the banking sector remain in good shape, and while US/global economic growth is likely to slow in the second half of 2024 relative to the first, we expect it will remain positive. Although market concentration risk is elevated, given its focus on highly profitable AI-related tech stocks, we would seek to be measured about diversifying such risks.
No, Federal Reserve rate cuts alone are unlikely to trigger sustained outperformance for Chinese equities.
No, not right now. We continue to believe investors should: (1) keep equity allocations aligned with broad policy targets; (2) maintain modest overweights in less expensive areas within equities, such as developed markets value and small caps; and (3) maintain a modest overweight in long US Treasury securities within bond portfolios.
Most risk assets enjoyed strong returns in fiscal year ended June 2024. Developed markets equities led on better-than-expected economic data and the anticipation that central banks would begin easing monetary policies.
Our outlook for New Zealand is mixed in 2024. We expect economic growth and equity market to remain muted. In contrast, we remain positive on New Zealand government bonds.