As economic growth slows, manufacturing contracts, and major central banks start to ease monetary policy anew, investors need to consider what policy options the world has left in the event this slowdown becomes a recession. Policy rates are approaching or have passed zero at a time in which many countries and regions have elevated levels of government debt. When these economies eventually head into a recession, what are the options for governments and what are their respective investment consequences? In this edition of VantagePoint, we look to the 1930s for some answers, while realizing that intervening changes to the global financial system rule out an exact repeat of that period.

We recently argued that investors should take a systematic and comprehensive approach to investing in China, overweighting Chinese assets relative to their index weights. This edition of VantagePoint addresses five key questions regarding implementation decisions.

Because the US economy has entered the late stage of the economic cycle, investors should consider the prospect of a bear market recession, even though one does not seem imminent.

Advice in Brief The global economy and capital markets are constantly evolving. From the industrial revolution in the 1700s, to information technology in the last 45 years, waves of innovation have had profound implications for society, the global economy, and investors. At the same time, debt cycles, demographics, and productivity trends all have a slow-moving,…