February’s publication summarizes two outlooks on Japan. The first considers how the yen may devalue further, which bodes well for the Japanese economy and equity investors. The second discusses how low absolute valuations ultimately will lead Japanese equities to outperform, despite structural problems that are well known to investors. “It Ain’t Over ’Till It’s Over”…
January’s publication summarizes two emerging markets outlooks. The first considers how investors may be mistaken in believing that the secular outlook for emerging markets is superior to the cyclical. The second discusses the significant structural headwinds that emerging markets equities face, and argues 2013 may be the year when some of these boil to the…
December’s publication summarizes two market outlooks for 2013. The first suggests that while the fiscal cliff poses a serious risk for consumers and investors, U.S. equities should see healthy returns due to a combination of earnings growth, reasonable valuations, and an improving macro backdrop. The second posits that events in global markets in 2013 will…
November’s publication summarizes two perspectives on the usefulness of the Shiller price-earnings ratio as a gauge of equity market valuations. “Eye on the Market” Michael Cembalest, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, May 2, 2012, and October 10, 2012 “An Old Friend: The Stock Market’s Shiller P/E” Clifford Asness, AQR Capital Management, November 2012
October’s publication summarizes three articles on the fiscal cliff. The first contends that though the threatening fiscal cliff and uncertain public policy have dampened U.S. economic activity, there is potential for a confidence boost and cyclical rally if the election brings about pro-growth tax reform. The second discusses how some capital markets have yet to…
September’s publication summarizes two articles that discuss the outlook for China. The first contends that the recent pressure on the Chinese economy is cyclical, and that the outlook remains upbeat. The second suggests that some of the problems facing China are more secular in nature, such as how a lack of exposure to competitive forces…
August’s publication presents two articles with different ways of thinking about how strong future equity returns may be. One discusses the drivers of equity returns; the other takes a more macro-driven view and suggests corporate profits may be approaching some secular headwinds. “Cult Figures” Bill Gross, PIMCO, August 2012 “Reports of the Death of Equities Have…
July’s publication summarizes two articles that discuss the impending U.S. fiscal cliff. The first considers that though the case for investing in the United States has improved, investors will want to see more evidence of macro repair globally before doing so. The second delves into the issue that despite state and local governments improving revenues…
June’s publication summarizes three articles that consider opportunities in the current market. The first considers ways to evaluate potential returns for equities and which global markets are now most attractive. The second discusses how there are pockets of cheap assets for those with a focus on quality and stable returns rather than capital gains. The…
May’s publication summarizes two articles about European equity valuations. The first considers the changing political environment and whether this is baked in to equity prices. The second discusses various valuation metrics and why some might be less relevant in today’s challenging environment. “The New Eurozone Political Geometry: What Economic and Market Implications?” by Tina Fordham,…