Yes, for this cycle. US and global bond yields have risen sharply following the electoral victory of Donald Trump, as investors have taken the view that a Trump presidency, coupled with Republican control of Congress, will be able to engage in double-barrel fiscal stimulus via tax cuts and infrastructure spending with the potential to boost growth and inflation.

Bond yields have, in fact, been moving upward for months as the initial shock of “Brexit” wore off and investors began to question the assumption that global central banks would continue to increase monetary easing. Bond market complacency was shaken in early September when the European Central Bank gave no guidance on whether it would extend its quantitative easing program in 2017, while the US Federal Reserve signaled its desire to hike rates by the end of the year. Though some believe a Trump victory will delay Fed tightening, markets are pricing in a greater than 80% probability of a rate hike in December. Recent US growth, employment, and inflation indicators all suggest the point of “peak deflation” has passed, for now.

Even before the US election, there was a growing realization that central banks have done all they can to support growth, as it is clear that negative rates in Japan and Europe have not been as effective as hoped and may be doing more harm than good.* A slate of elections over the coming months in Europe may also reinforce a shift toward more fiscal stimulus; Japan has already moved in this direction.

Yet it is not a foregone conclusion that fiscal stimulus will be able to push the global economy out of its current lull, especially as protectionist/anti-globalization views are rising in the developed world. Trump has promised to take a tough stance on trade, and the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union will have trade implications. Protectionism, by definition, tends to be inflationary by both increasing the prices of imported goods (via tariffs and barriers) and increasing domestic prices (via substitution). Globalization has been a source of global dis-inflation for much of the past two decades. Thus, bond yields need to rise to reflect the return of an inflation risk premium.

Currency markets also will be impacted. This year, investors have seen significant currency volatility given that rock-bottom rates make currencies very sensitive to monetary policy. Looking ahead, all else equal, an environment featuring fiscal stimulus and rising real rates would help support the US dollar, especially if political risk continues to rise in Europe. Tougher trade policies and widening budget deficits may eventually prove a headwind to the greenback, but the short-term outlook leans bullish as the Fed may be willing to tolerate a stronger US dollar if it helps to counteract rising inflation pressure from domestic stimulus.

Gold will also be caught in the crosscurrents. History shows a clear negative correlation between gold and the US dollar, as well as between gold and rising real interest rates. Yet gold also has a strong relationship with rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Which of these forces will dominate gold remains to be seen, but in the near term, rising rates should dent the appetite for gold.

To the extent that elevated valuations across a swathe of asset classes were predicated on global interest rates remaining low for an indefinite period, rising rates may still have the ability to rattle markets, or at least provide a valuation headwind for many asset classes despite the potential pickup in economic growth. Market action in October saw yield-sensitive assets like REITs and utility stocks hit hard, and a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum” is still possible.

Ultimately, rising inflation and interest rates will trigger the next US recession (as they always do), and this may send bond yields lower—as could a global recession brought on by a trade war. But for now, bond yields and interest rates have probably hit their lows for this cycle, assuming fiscal stimulus across the developed world becomes a reality in 2017.

* Please see Wade O’Brien et al., “The Consequences of Negative Interest Rates,” Cambridge Associates Research Brief, October 10, 2016

Aaron Costello is a Managing Director on Cambridge Associates’ Global Investment Research team.