Devaluing the Yen

The failure of conventional fiscal stimulus, the growing evidence of widespread deflation, and the impending crisis posed by mounting government debt all indicate that the authorities must attempt to reflate the economy by any means possible, including currency depreciation. However, the efficacy of yen depreciation is far from certain, as its impact on consumer prices is limited, particularly given the dysfunctional banking system. For investors, this suggests that distressed debt—aggressive disposal of which must be included in any concerted reflation effort—and investments that benefit from inflation may both present interesting investment opportunities.