UK Equities: Curbed Enthusiasm
UK large-cap stocks are undervalued, but lack a clear near-term catalyst to unlock this value; mid-cap valuations are moving higher, but so too are earnings.
Authored by: Wade O'Brien
Will Further Market Volatility Ensue If Greece Does Not Return to the Bargaining Table?
The situation with Greece has become increasingly unpredictable and could trigger further market volatility in the weeks ahead. However, even under an adverse scenario such as a Greek exit from the Eurozone, other European assets are likely to eventually resume their decoupling from Greek assets, given firewalls in place and a more favorable economic backdrop….
When Should Investors Become More Enthusiastic About US Small-Cap Stocks?
Investors should become more enthusiastic about US small-cap stocks when valuations become more compelling. Small-cap valuations today are unusually rich. Our preferred composite P/E ratio indicates the Russell 2000® trades at 33.7 times normalized earnings, about 60% above fair value and in the top 2% of all historical occurrences. Short-term metrics are little more compelling;…
European Equities: Too Early to Take Profits
We continue to advise an overweight to Eurozone equities versus US equivalents given attractive relative valuations, greater potential for earnings growth, and tailwinds from the improving macro environment Eurozone equities have performed strongly year-to-date but may have more room to run given valuations and weaker medium-term performance. UK equities have similar valuations but are less…
US High-Yield Bonds: Our Interest Remains Limited
We continue to find high-yield bonds uncompelling; select opportunities in high-yield energy credit may offer attractive alpha Solid credit fundamentals and 6%+ yields in a low-return environment have lured some investors back to high-yield bonds, but current coupons will serve to cap future returns and offer little protection in the (somewhat unlikely) event the credit…
Could Negotiations Between Greece and Its Eurozone Creditors Break Down and Cause More Volatility for Related Assets?
Talks between Greece and its Eurozone creditors to extend its bailout may again break down and thus trigger more volatility for local assets, but the potential for contagion to other asset markets is contained for several reasons. All involved parties have strong incentives to eventually reach an agreement. Even if they can’t, the fact that…
Is the Stronger Dollar Impacting US Companies’ Earnings?
A number of companies have blamed the strengthening dollar for disappointing fourth quarter and 2015 earnings guidance. With about 65% of S&P 500 companies having reported, headlines that around 75% of firms are beating expectations obscure the reality of forecasts that have steadily been marked lower. Growth for the quarter (year-over-year) is expected to be…
Japan: Micro More Compelling Than Macro
Better earnings growth and attractive relative valuations support a slight overweight to Japanese equities versus US equivalents The multi-faceted nature of the Japanese earnings recovery has made Japanese equities more attractive. Further, structural reforms in Japan have been more successful than many thought would be the case early last year, and prospects for further success…
Five Key Questions for 2015
2014 has been a perplexing year for many investors and 2015 may prove no less vexing. Weighing the macro, micro, and “known unknowns,” portfolios may struggle to generate returns next year comparable to those in 2013 or perhaps even those seen this year. In this piece we briefly review the year nearly past and then…
What Does the Bank of Japan’s Recent QE Announcement Imply About the Underlying Health of the Japanese Economy?
The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) surprise announcement that it would dramatically ramp up its QE efforts is a tacit admission that “Abenomics” is stalling, and supports our view about the underlying health of the Japanese economy: excessive debt levels, demographics, and overdue structural reforms are serious headwinds to growth. To briefly recap, on October 31…