Should Investors Alter Portfolios After US President Trump’s Re-election?
No, not at this time. While the Trump administration’s policies will impact markets, we expect other factors will be larger drivers of long-term investment performance.
Authored by: Wade O'Brien
US Election Anxiety: Keeping Calm Amid Political Uncertainty
Markets have been jittery as the US presidential election approaches. The macro backdrop is shifting, with slowing economic growth and ebbing inflation meaning a cycle of monetary easing beckons. At the same time, elevated valuations for a variety of assets are causing investors to reconsider narratives around themes, such as AI investment, and consider asset allocation tweaks. Investors should resist positioning portfolios for any one political outcome and remember that increased market volatility around elections is common. In the following report, we discuss our views on five common election-related narratives in the marketplace today.
Are US Small Caps Poised to Outperform?
Yes. We believe higher-quality US small-cap companies trade at a significant discount to large-cap peers, and their balance sheets have held up better than headlines suggest.
Private Credit Markets Are Growing in Size and Opportunity
This paper provides an update on recent developments in private credit and highlights several opportunities that investors should explore for the remainder of 2024.
Should Investors Consider Allocating to US Commercial Real Estate Debt?
Yes. A record of roughly $925 billion of US commercial real estate (CRE) debt is maturing in 2024 and refinancing needs in future years are also significant.
2024 Outlook: Credit
We expect direct lending and European opportunistic private credit funds will outperform their long-term averages because of high asset yields and the pull back in credit availability among traditional lenders. We like structured credits, particularly high-quality collateralized loan obligation debt, and we expect high-yield bonds will outperform leveraged loans. But we remain neutral on high yield because spreads are compressed.
2024 Outlook: Real Assets
We expect REIT and public infrastructure performances will improve, given undemanding valuations and our view on interest rates. We believe private infrastructure funds will perform well, and we think nuclear energy will emerge as a small but important opportunity.
Is Now a Good Time to Invest in the Energy Transition?
Yes, the transition to a low-carbon economy is producing a myriad of productive ways to put capital to work.
VantagePoint: Investing in a Low-Carbon Future
The energy transition involves a complex and dynamic set of changes in the way we do just about everything. While significant progress has been made in some quarters, considerable capital will be needed to fund the massive investment required over coming decades. We expect investors with a deliberate and thoughtful plan to invest in the transition across the risk/reward spectrum will be rewarded.
Is Now a Good Time to Allocate to Private Credit Strategies?
Yes. Despite elevated macro uncertainty, it is an opportune time to allocate to private credit.