Asian and global market volatility surged in early 2025 as US tariffs triggered global growth fears. Given the export-oriented nature of most Asian economies and their sensitivity to global growth and demand, the region may bear the brunt of US tariffs. As such, Asia market volatility is likely to persist in the near term, particularly since US trade policy can shift abruptly.
Global equities tumbled nearly last week following the announcement of US tariffs on April 2, with the rout continuing into Monday, April 7.
No, we do not think so. India’s economic growth is set to continue moderating, which may lead to further downgrades to stretched earnings growth expectations.
Most risk assets enjoyed strong returns in the calendar year (CY) ended December 31, 2024. US equities led on better-than-expected economic data and AI-related growth.
We expect developed markets value and small-cap equities to outperform, given our economic views and their steep valuation discounts. Regionally, we believe US equity performance will not match the level set in 2024, allowing European, Japanese, and emerging markets equities to perform more in line with broader developed markets. Within emerging markets, strong Indian equity gains should moderate, while we doubt Chinese equities will collapse. At the same time, we expect long/short equity strategies will perform better than typical.
We expect the US dollar rally will ultimately cool, with early strength giving way to modest weakening. Meanwhile, gold returns are likely to moderate in 2025 after a surge in 2024. Emerging markets’ use of stablecoins should support positive crypto returns, driving blockchain innovations and investment opportunities.
With the global economy showing signs of cooling and Chinese economic momentum remaining weak, the outlook for Asian markets is increasingly mixed.
No, Federal Reserve rate cuts alone are unlikely to trigger sustained outperformance for Chinese equities.
Most risk assets enjoyed strong returns in fiscal year ended June 2024. Developed markets equities led on better-than-expected economic data and the anticipation that central banks would begin easing monetary policies.
Our outlook for New Zealand is mixed in 2024. We expect economic growth and equity market to remain muted. In contrast, we remain positive on New Zealand government bonds.