The recent shift in common wisdom with respect to covenant-lite loans hearkens the warning to be careful of changing opinions in the face of unchanging facts and steadfast opinions. This note summarizes the pro–covenant lite positions articulated to us and points out their weaknesses.
Direct lending, or senior debt, funds have come to dominate the private credit asset class, capturing significant portfolio allocations and outpacing fundraising of other private credit strategies. However, over the past 18 months, Cambridge Associates has felt enthusiasm for senior debt allocations cool as discussions turn to senior debt funds’ performance through the credit cycle.
As part of our ongoing commitment to alternative credit, Cambridge Associates (CA) began compiling a database of credit stress and losses in one of the largest strategies within private credit, senior debt (i.e., direct lending). Our initial outreach in the United States and Europe yielded data from 11 senior debt funds tracking material document modifications (which we use as a proxy for credit stress, greater detail below) and loss rates in bilateral and clubbed middle-market lending.
In response to the proliferation of new private credit strategies and managers, Cambridge Associates has developed a set of benchmarks that will help limited partners assess the performance of new and existing fund manager (general partners).
When evaluating US credit trends over the last two decades, an institutional loan default that occurs within its year of origination has often been an ominous sign The idea resembles the closely monitored first payment–default metric that consumer lenders track as a bellweather for loan quality A loan default within its year of origination has…
The recovery rate on senior loans looks poised to fall in the next cyclical downturn, as weaker structures and terms impact the market. In this research note, we highlight our concerns and consider how the cocktail of unitranche loans, inflated cash flow assumptions, and weak terms could threaten recoveries in the next cyclical downturn.
Providing high liquidity, good return premiums over cash, and a predictable risk profile, trade finance can play a valuable role in portfolio strategy.
As the economic cycle progresses, the next recession draws inexorably closer, bringing with it the next downturn in the credit cycle. Recognizing this, institutional investors are increasingly considering allocations to distressed debt managers. While lumping all distressed managers into one group is tempting, different managers have meaningfully different approaches and investors’ traditional way of thinking about distressed debt managers makes timing paramount. In this paper, we offer a new way to think about distressed investing that combines three complementary sub-strategies and encourages investors to allocate across the credit cycle.
Private credit offers distinct advantages and appeal in a low return environment, but investors should be aware that behind the name is a diverse array of strategies, some more familiar to institutional investors than others, each with idiosyncratic risks. In this report, we describe the broad array of private credit strategies and position them along the risk/return spectrum, review the investment process, discuss expectations for the performance of these strategies in various parts of the economic cycle, and highlight some key risks for investors to consider.
If passing the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act in July 2010 did not spawn direct lending, what did? In this analysis we explore the genesis of the recent direct lending phenomenon to identify risks to the strategy and what investors should watch going forward.