Yes. Economic growth is slowing, and governments have limited monetary and fiscal policy responses available in the event this slowdown becomes a recession. Today, investors need to weigh the investment implications of likely policy options.
As economic growth slows, manufacturing contracts, and major central banks start to ease monetary policy anew, investors need to consider what policy options the world has left in the event this slowdown becomes a recession. Policy rates are approaching or have passed zero at a time in which many countries and regions have elevated levels of government debt. When these economies eventually head into a recession, what are the options for governments and what are their respective investment consequences? In this edition of VantagePoint, we look to the 1930s for some answers, while realizing that intervening changes to the global financial system rule out an exact repeat of that period.
No. While US companies have some defensible profitability advantages, today’s elevated margin levels may be poised for a reversal of fortune.
In this edition of VantagePoint, we uncover four of the most common inaccuracies we hear about US equities.
Public and private Chinese equities both present attractive investment opportunities today.
We recently argued that investors should take a systematic and comprehensive approach to investing in China, overweighting Chinese assets relative to their index weights. This edition of VantagePoint addresses five key questions regarding implementation decisions.
We do not expect a rerun of the 2000s for tech and venture capital. The similarities between the late 1990s and today are concerning, but the differences are even more sweeping.
In this edition of VantagePoint, we compare and contrast the late 1990s and today; our intent is to help investors navigate this recent downturn and the next recession-related bear market (which may already be in progress), and to position their portfolios for long-term success.
Although we are more cautious heading into 2019 than we were 12 months ago, we still think a roughly neutral allocation to risk assets is the right approach.
If implemented appropriately, we believe quality will decline less than broad equities under most stress scenarios.