New Zealand Outlook 2016: Keep Steady
Risks to the global economy are rising, but the New Zealand economy is relatively well placed compared to others, with many of the risks external in nature.
Authored by: Aaron Costello
RMB Risks
While a currency crisis in China can be avoided, much depends on investor psychology and how China manages the capital account.
Australia Outlook 2016: Déjà Vu All Over Again …
Investors should be prepared for 2016 to look similar to 2015, with high volatility and poor returns for risk assets.
Is Emerging Markets Debt Attractive Today?
Despite seemingly high yields, today is not a particularly attractive time to buy emerging markets debt, whether hard currency or local currency.
What’s Next for the US Dollar?
Even given the recent decline in the dollar, we still view the currency as vulnerable in the near term, but it ultimately has more to run before the next depreciation cycle begins.
Assessing the Likelihood of Another EM Currency Crisis
We do not anticipate a systemic emerging markets currency crisis like that of the late 1990s, though EM currency weakness and volatility are likely to persist for the next few years.
Alternative Credit Opportunities in Asia
Asia has a structural and cyclical need for alternative credit providers; given where Asia is in the credit cycle, special situations and direct lending strategies should offer attractive risk-adjusted returns Returns for traditional Asian fixed income and credit are unattractive today. However, opportunities remain in the less liquid, underserved, and complex spheres of corporate lending…
What’s Behind the Recent Rally in Chinese Equities?
Chinese equities have captured headlines recently, with trading volumes surging in Hong Kong and the MSCI China Index (which tracks the performance of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong) rising 14% over four trading days (April 8–13). The catalyst was a decision in late March by mainland Chinese regulators to allow domestic mutual funds to…
India: Can the Bull Market Continue?
Over the past two years, India has come full circle, moving from a member of the so-called Fragile Five economies with poor macro fundamentals to one of the few emerging markets with a positive macro story. India was among the best-performing equity markets in 2014, returning 24% in US$ terms, compared to -1.8% for emerging…
What’s Next for the US Dollar?
This chart book provides context on previous US dollar rallies and where the dollar is in the current cycle.