Outlook 2020: Ten Investing Themes for the Coming Year
Our thoughts on key macro questions, emerging opportunities, and risks in 2020.
Authored by: Aaron Costello
Does a Dovish Fed Doom the US Dollar?
No, we do not think Federal Reserve rate cuts signal a major downturn in the US dollar.
Currency Views and Valuations: June 30, 2019
This chart book presents commentary and analysis of historical currency momentum, valuation, and fundamentals in nine base currencies: Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar, Singapore dollar, Swiss franc, and US dollar.
Does an Extended US-China Trade War Change the Strategic Investment Case for China?
No. While we do not expect the trade war to end after President Trump and President Xi meet this week at the G20 in Japan, we have not changed our view that investors should consider dedicated allocations to China broadly and A-shares in particular.
Should Investors Chase the Rally in China A-Shares?
Yes, but only if you can tolerate the volatility.
The Case for Dedicated China Exposure
While we have advised a gradual approach to investing in China, today we believe that investors should take a systematic and comprehensive approach, overweighting Chinese assets relative to their index weights. Looking past the uncertainty and negativity, investors will find a large investment opportunity set, a robust universe of public and private managers, and appealing public equity valuations.
Outlook 2019: More Risk for Less Return?
Although we are more cautious heading into 2019 than we were 12 months ago, we still think a roughly neutral allocation to risk assets is the right approach.
Rising from the Ashes: Key Developments Since the Global Financial Crisis
In this report, we briefly highlight five key post-GFC developments and discuss how investors might adapt their portfolios to these changes.
Will the Addition of Chinese A-Shares to MSCI’s Global Indexes Trigger an A-Share Rally?
No, MSCI index inclusion will not trigger a bull market in Chinese A-shares. Given the very modest initial weights and the lack of clarity on future increases, we doubt that index-driven flows will drive share prices meaningfully higher.
Currency Views and Valuations
This chart book presents commentary and analysis of historical currency momentum, valuation, and fundamentals in five key base currencies.