While Asian economies seem poised for faster economic growth than the developed world, these superior prospects are already incorporated into equity valuations, leaving Asian equities vulnerable to near-term disappointment.
Japanese equities are again oversold, unloved, and undervalued to the point where in the past the market has managed to post subsequent relative outperformance. However, it may be some months before Japanese equities decisively outperform, given the headwinds of a strong yen and uncertainty surrounding economic policy and the strength of the global economic recovery.
This is the eighth in what has evolved into a series of occasional papers, Asset Allocation in the Current Environment, on the evolution of the secular bear market in equities and our thoughts on how investors can best cope with the prevailing uncertainties.
The collapse in S&P earnings over the past year and the range of future possible earnings estimates create high uncertainty around U.S. equity valuations.
With U.S. Treasury yields at their lowest levels in over 50 years, the effectiveness of Treasuries as a “deflation hedge” has been greatly diminished. While the current environment still demands that investors maintain deflation protection, investors should take advantage of the recent rally in Treasuries to rebalance allocations back to target and actively seek to…
The macroeconomic outlook remains extremely challenging as the long overdue global rebalancing begins; investors need to make sure they are prepared for what may be a prolonged period of volatility and the possibility of new lows in asset markets.
The year 2009 will reveal whether Asia’s growth over the past few years reflected real structural changes rather than debt-fueled U.S. consumption.
While the macroeconomic outlook for Japan is not encouraging, Japanese equities have gone the furthest in pricing in a dismal 2009. Given the market’s depressed valuations, it may not take much to spark a rally, especially if the global economy begins to stabilize.
Despite mounting concerns over deflation, inflation-linked bonds offer low-cost insurance against a deflationary future, and look increasingly attractive relative to nominal government bonds at today’s historically low yields.
Market leadership shifted abruptly toward high-quality mega-cap stocks over October and November, yet despite the sharp recent improvement in relative valuations of small caps and value stocks, we still think it is too early to switch from a defensive high-quality portfolio in the current environment.