No, we don’t think so. While euro area economic activity has weakened meaningfully, with real GDP growth falling to its lowest annual pace (1.1%) since 2013 in third quarter, strong equity returns aren’t dependent on robust economic growth. Ultimately, we continue to like the bloc as part of a risk-controlled overweight to global ex US equities funded from US equities.
A universal approach to portfolio construction can help schemes achieve required return targets whilst adding additional upside from alpha generation; reduce risk through true diversification; and generate sufficient income to comfortably meet both planned and unplanned cashflow needs.
Yes. Economic growth is slowing, and governments have limited monetary and fiscal policy responses available in the event this slowdown becomes a recession. Today, investors need to weigh the investment implications of likely policy options.
Investors would be wise to consider climate science in their investment decision-making process. Climate risk is likely underestimated by financial markets, and there is a window of opportunity for investors to get ahead of the curve, given our expected future repricing of this risk. This paper provides a high-level overview of the current climate science and discusses a few economic implications. Put simply, we all need to think like scientists now.
As economic growth slows, manufacturing contracts, and major central banks start to ease monetary policy anew, investors need to consider what policy options the world has left in the event this slowdown becomes a recession. Policy rates are approaching or have passed zero at a time in which many countries and regions have elevated levels of government debt. When these economies eventually head into a recession, what are the options for governments and what are their respective investment consequences? In this edition of VantagePoint, we look to the 1930s for some answers, while realizing that intervening changes to the global financial system rule out an exact repeat of that period.
Third quarter’s edition summarizes five articles on machine learning.
No, sterling-based investors should not change their currency hedge ratios or their allocations to sterling-denominated assets based on potential Brexit outcomes.
Elevated equity market valuations and potentially rising bond yields suggest the return environment for traditional risk assets could be difficult. Faced with this challenge, institutional investors are seeking alternative sources of return. Alternative risk premia strategies—which harvest well-established risk premia and market anomalies across asset classes—may fit the bill.
Equity market downturns are chaotic environments that are rarely short-lived—the best advice is to be prepared.
Investors that have inflexible spending needs and large allocations to illiquid assets should plan how they will tackle the next downturn’s liquidity challenges.